Short version again, based on my schedule. Quakes in Fiji, New Ireland P.N.G. and the Kamchatka Peninisula yield the following NERVS update:
4.0 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Southern California (including offshore, Baja and Gulf of California), Central California, Northern California (including offshore), Myanmar, Pakistan, Greece
- Secondary vector: Alaska, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Utah, Vancouver Island, Taiwan, Iran, Italy
- Also possible: Wyoming, Montana
- Additionally, a higher level of activity seems to be presenting under the central United States (Wyoming, Oklahoma), and interestingly, may relate to increased activity under central Europe. Though not within the current scope of the NERVS experiment (California-focused), we'll see how this develops.
NERVS Accuracy Check
***Last round included several quakes that occurred within the risk vectors. Will be produced at a later time***
-----
For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults.
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.
Is unusual seismic activity responsible for undersea cables snapping in the Mediterranean? BBC reports:
18:52 GMT, Friday, 19 December 2008—Internet and phone communications between Europe, the Middle East, and Asia have been seriously disrupted after submarine cables were severed…the cause of the break is as yet unknown, although some seismic activity was reported near Malta shortly before the cut was detected…"We've lost three out of four lines. If the fourth cable breaks, we're looking at a total blackout in the Middle East," said Mr Wright…"Normally you would expect to see one major break per cable per year…For this to happen twice in one year, on the same cable, is a serious cause for concern."
Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:
For preparedness and response information, see:
Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.
What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:
What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:
Archived Test Videos
When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates:
Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
