NERVS update

Hi All, 

The last NERVS update (July 14) was accurate, but since its expiration, additional California and West Coast quakes have occurred. Those subscribed to the @NERVSupdate Twitter feed received accurate preliminary notice (July 29 and Aug 9), but no formal email update was made.

An unusually active series of quakes for California and the West Coast started August 6. A 4.6 in Central California was followed on August 8 by a 4.5 in the Greater Los Angeles Area, a 4.9 off the Coast of Oregon and a 5.6 in the Revilla Gigedo Islands region, all of which followed the pattern that prompted the July 29 Twitter notice.

The August 9 Twitter update referenced this unusual pattern of activity, and was also prompted by quakes in several known precursor areas: Mid-Atlantic Ridge, Kuril Islands, Western Xizang, South Sandwich Islands and Southern Alaska.

Since that time, a NERVS pattern has developed, with quakes occurring in the Fox/Aleutian Islands, Northwestern Iran and the Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge. A pattern rapidly emerged Monday evening that included quakes inTaiwan, Peru, Pakistan, and Hindu Kush, Afghanistan. Additionally a 7.7 quake occurred in the Sea of Okhotsk. Quakes in this region frequently, but don't always, precede California quakes that fit the NERVS profile.

Before this latest NERVS update could be released, the USGS released but then deleted several quake reports for the San Martin/Monterey Bay area, so it's not clear if a qualifying California quake has occurred already. Even so, the clear pattern development, the 7.7 in the Sea of Okhotsk, and the previously mentioned unusual activity yields the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Central California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore)
- Secondary vector: Oregon, Nevada, Washington, Utah, Wyoming
- Also possible: Chile, Nicaragua, off the coast of Ecuador, Western Canada, New Zealand, Western Australia


-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed
To subscribe, please follow: NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----

Nate Myers

nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes in the Kuril Islands, Bulgaria, Western Iran, the Reykjanes Ridge, the Western Indian-Antacrtic Ridge and a 5.6 quake in Myanmar yield the following NERVS update:

4.0 or greater magnitude in next 15 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Central California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore)
- Secondary vector: Oregon, Nevada, Washington, Utah
- Also possible: Alaska, Taiwan, Honshu, Hokkaido, Chile, Alaska, Kamchatka Peninsula


-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed
To subscribe, please follow: NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----

Nate Myers

nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Several NERVS patterns have occurred over the last few weeks, but at low magnitudes that typically don't produce a qualifying California quake.

However, a 6.0 quake in Taiwan, a 5.4 quake in the Sunda Strait and a 4.7 quake in Myanmar this morning yield the following NERVS update:

4.0 or greater magnitude in next 15 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Central California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore)
- Secondary vector: Oregon, Nevada, Washington, Utah
- Also possible: Alaska, India-Nepal border region, Western Alaska, Black Sea, Svalbard Island region


-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed
To subscribe, please follow: NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----

Nate Myers

nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

The last update was inaccurate for the primary vector, but close, with a 3.7 quake occurring near Soledad during the right time and place but at the wrong magnitude, and several California quakes within the right magnitude, but five days after the last update's expiration. Quakes in the secondary vector were accurate.

Three quakes occurred over the weekend near the Sunda Strait, and since those events, several large quakes have occurred, including a 7.0 quake near Eastern New Guinea, a 6.7 quake near Valparaiso, Chile, and a 5.6 quake in the Kermadec Islands. Typically I'd wait for one or two more indicators (activity near Iceland, Alaska, Myanmar or parts of the Philippines). However, at this point there appears to be enough pattern formation to yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 15 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Central California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore)
- Secondary vector: Oregon, Nevada, Washington, Utah, Wyoming, India-Nepal border region
- Also possible: Alaska, Svalbard Island region, Myanmar, Mindoro or Mindanao (Philippines), Taiwan

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Twitter Feed
To subscribe, please follow: NERVSupdate

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

Recent quakes in Oaxaca, Honshu, Iran, Turkey, Chile, the India-Nepal border region and a string of quakes affecting the Northern East Pacific Rise yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Bay Area (including Halls Valley and Morgan Hill area), Northern California (including offshore), Central California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore)
- Secondary vector: Oregon, Nevada, Washington, Utah, Wyoming
- Also possible: Myanmar

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Twitter Feed
To subscribe, please follow: NERVSupdate

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update was accurate for California, with a 4.5 quake occurring in the Gulf of California on December 23, which was within the specified timeframe. Non-primary vectors were also accurate.

Recent quakes in Iran, Chile, Oaxaca, Honshu, the Santa Cruz Islands, Tonga and Myanmar are at relatively low magnitudes, but combining that activity with the 7.3 quake in Northern Sumatra yesterday yields the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Northern California (including offshore), Central California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore)
- Secondary vector: Nevada, Washington, Utah, Vancouver Island, western Canada
- Also possible: Taiwan, Northern Peru, New Zealand, Iceland (Svalbard Region), Kamchatka Peninsula

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Twitter Feed
To subscribe, please follow: NERVSupdate

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update was technically inaccurate for California, but close, with a 5.2 quake occurring in Baja, California on December 4th, two days after the last update time frame. Non-primary vectors were accurate.

Continued activity in Guerrero (Mexico), the Andreanof Islands, Chile, Iran, Hindu Kush, Honshu, the South Sandwich Islands, as well as a 7.3 quake in the Eastern New Guinea region yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Central California (including offshore), Southern California, Northern California (including offshore), Idaho
- Secondary vector: Oregon, Nevada, Washington, Utah, western Canada
- Also possible: Myanmar, Taiwan, New Zealand, China, Pakistan, Kamchatka Peninsula, Mozambique

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Twitter Feed
To subscribe, please follow: NERVSupdate

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.