NERVS: November 2008

Sunday, November 30, 2008

NERVS update

Hi All,

A 5.8 quake occurred in Northern California on 11/28, which was outside the bounds of the last NERVS update. However, quakes since that time in Japan, Fiji, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Iran and Chile suggest another possible California quake, which yields the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:

- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including offshore), Central California

- Secondary vector: Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Utah, Vancouver Island, Taiwan, Peru, Kamchatka Peninsula, Greece

- Also possible: Wyoming, Montana, Puerto Rico, eastern Africa, England

***NEW***

NERVS Accuracy Check

The last NERVS update was validated by quakes in Southern California, which includes Baja:

Region:                            BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
Geographic coordinates:            32.387N, 115.320W
Magnitude:                        5.0 Ml
Depth:                            37 km
Universal Time (UTC):             20 Nov 2008 19:23:01
Time near the Epicenter:          20 Nov 2008 11:23:01
Local standard time in your area: 20 Nov 2008 11:23:01

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:

Numerical (or "non-scientific")

Earthquake

Risk

Vector

System

...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

http://deimos3.apple.com/WebObjects/Core.woa/Browse/berkeley.edu.1177911588

For preparedness and response information, see:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/preparedness.php

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:

http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/eqfloods/floods.html

Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/seishaz/prepare/office.php

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:

Archived Test Videos

http://nees.buffalo.edu/projects/NEESWood/video.asp

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates:

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&gl=us&ptab=2&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=114896433391258936310.00043ec877e3a5d8328f8

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

NERVS update

Hi All,

Thanks for those who mentioned the quake in San Jose yesterday. According to the last NERVS update, it was accurate in its 10-day timeframe (depending on how you count), but came in at a lower magnitude (3.2).

That quake may be a small precursor to a larger event in California. Quakes in Hokkaido, Myanmar, Southern Iran and New Britain Region, P.N.G. yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:

- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including offshore), Central California

- Secondary vector: Nevada, Washington, Utah, Vancouver Island, Italy, Taiwan, Chile, Peru

- Also possible: Wyoming, Japan, Nicaragua, Bangladesh

***NEW***

NERVS Accuracy Check

The last NERVS update was validated by quakes in China (accurate)

…and partially by quakes in the following locations:

- the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico (close to Cayman Islands)

- San Francisco Bay Area:

Magnitude 3.2

Date-Time Monday, November 10, 2008 at 11:56:25 AM at epicenter

Location 37.432°N, 121.776°W

Depth 8.8 km (5.5 miles)

Region SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA

***NEWS***

Geologists try to make earthquake prep and response cool and chic. If you'll be in L.A. on November 13, you can be a part of it!

See the Wall Street Journal article:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122636562301015905.html

Thanks to NERVS list member Joel Williamson for spotting this article