Hi All,
From a date and time perspective, the most recent NERVS update is still in effect. However, recent quake activity yielded a 5.1 quake in Southern California, global activity seems to be increasing in both frequency and intensity, and several NERVS vectors seem to be showing higher-than-usual rates of repeat activity. Additionally, as I was preparing this message, a 7.0 occurred in the Kermadec islands, indicating the possibility of another large quake. As a result, the sum of these factors yields the following NERVS update:
4.5 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Northern California (incl. offshore), Southern California (incl.offshore), Central California, Turkey
- Secondary vector: Washington, Nevada, Utah, Vancouver Island, Taiwan, Chile, Peru, China, Greece
- Also possible: Wyoming, Montana, Myanmar, Lake Tanganyika, eastern Africa, England
- Based on the most recent 7.0, another large quake could occur anywhere, but potentially in Iran, Alaska or Japan
***UPGRADED***
NERVS Accuracy Check
Last Update
4.5 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including offshore), Central California
- Secondary vector: Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Utah, Vancouver Island, Taiwan, Peru, Kamchatka Peninsula, Greece
- Also possible: Wyoming, Montana, Puerto Rico, eastern Africa, England
Validated by the following California quake…
Region: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Geographic coordinates: 34.814N, 116.420W
Magnitude: 5.1 Mw
Depth: 5 km
Universal Time (UTC): 6 Dec 2008 04:18:42
Time near the Epicenter: 5 Dec 2008 20:18:42
Local standard time in your area: 5 Dec 2008 20:18:42
Geographic coordinates: 34.814N, 116.420W
Magnitude: 5.1 Mw
Depth: 5 km
Universal Time (UTC): 6 Dec 2008 04:18:42
Time near the Epicenter: 5 Dec 2008 20:18:42
Local standard time in your area: 5 Dec 2008 20:18:42
…and by several additional quakes:
Region: TAIWAN
Geographic coordinates: 23.304N, 121.580E
Magnitude: 5.2 Mb
Geographic coordinates: 23.304N, 121.580E
Magnitude: 5.2 Mb
-----
Region: NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
Geographic coordinates: 53.123N, 159.510E
Magnitude: 5.1 Mb
Geographic coordinates: 53.123N, 159.510E
Magnitude: 5.1 Mb
-----
Region: SOUTHERN GREECE
Geographic coordinates: 37.360N, 21.034E
Magnitude: 4.5 Mb
Geographic coordinates: 37.360N, 21.034E
Magnitude: 4.5 Mb
For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:
For preparedness and response information, see:
Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.
What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:
What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:
Archived Test Videos
When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates:
Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
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