Short version again. Quakes in Iran, Pakistan, New Ireland, P.N.G. Myanmar and Fiji yield the following NERVS update:
4.0 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Oregon, Washington, Southern California (including offshore, Baja and Gulf of California), Central California
- Secondary vector: Alaska, Nevada, Utah, Vancouver Island, Italy, Lake Tanganyika
- Also possible: Wyoming, Montana, China, Japan, Chile, Costa Rica or Guatemala, Southern Africa, Poland
NERVS Accuracy Check
Last round included several quakes that occurred within the risk vectors and time envelope. Quick snapshot of west coast quakes that were semi-accurate:
A quake in Oregon was two days outside the time envelope:
Region: OFF COAST OF OREGON
Geographic coordinates: 43.263N, 126.800W
Magnitude: 4.8 Mb
Depth: 10 km
Universal Time (UTC): 28 Feb 2009 22:24:40
Time near the Epicenter: 28 Feb 2009 14:24:40
Local standard time in your area: 28 Feb 2009 14:24:40
Geographic coordinates: 43.263N, 126.800W
Magnitude: 4.8 Mb
Depth: 10 km
Universal Time (UTC): 28 Feb 2009 22:24:40
Time near the Epicenter: 28 Feb 2009 14:24:40
Local standard time in your area: 28 Feb 2009 14:24:40
A quake in Baja was three days outside the time envelope:
Region: OFF COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
Geographic coordinates: 21.897N, 108.480W
Magnitude: 4.7 Mb
Depth: 10 km
Universal Time (UTC): 1 Mar 2009 12:14:45
Time near the Epicenter: 1 Mar 2009 05:14:45
Local standard time in your area: 1 Mar 2009 04:14:45
Geographic coordinates: 21.897N, 108.480W
Magnitude: 4.7 Mb
Depth: 10 km
Universal Time (UTC): 1 Mar 2009 12:14:45
Time near the Epicenter: 1 Mar 2009 05:14:45
Local standard time in your area: 1 Mar 2009 04:14:45
***Also of interest:
- Several smaller quakes (below the NERVS threshold) have been personally felt or reported by NERVS members in Cupertino and the South Bay. Bay City News Service reports two small quakes that struck Saturday night and Sunday morning: Read more at http://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/show_story.php?id=11402
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults.
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.
Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:
For preparedness and response information, see:
Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.
What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:
What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:
Archived Test Videos
When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates:
Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
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