The last abbreviated NERVS update was marginally accurate at best. Timing was off by 7 days and location specified by "Southern California", while including Baja, was still a stretch to cover actual quake location. However, a rapid series of 4 large quakes struck the Gulf of California on August 3, suggesting that the NERVS pattern is at least somewhat intact.
Since that time, quakes near Siberia, Ryukyu Island (Japan), Eastern New Guinea Region P.N.G., Myanmar and the Black Sea (near Bulgaria) yield the following NERVS update:
4.0 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Southern California including Baja but potentially the LA Basin, Northern California (including offshore…potentially near Fortuna), Central California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington
- Secondary vector: Afghanistan, Southern Iran, Chile (Aisen), Vancouver Island
- Also possible: Sichuan-Gansu region, China, Tajikistan, Sunda Strait
NERVS Accuracy Check
Last update was marginally accurate for California. However, other quakes within the Risk Vectors did occur within time and range. Details to come at a later time.
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes
And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html
If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults.
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.
Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:
For preparedness and response information, see:
Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.
What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:
What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:
Archived Test Videos
When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates:
Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
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