The last NERVS update was validated by a 5.2 Oregon quake within the vector magnitude and time window, as well as by multiple quakes in the secondary and tertiary vectors.*
Likewise, you may recall this statement in the last NERVS update: "If there's any merit to growing magnitude incidents as a precursor to a larger event, we could see another 7.0 or greater quake worldwide in the near future." This statement was confirmed by the most recent 7.0 quake in Java, Indonesia on September 1 (PDT), which may lead to some interesting future conclusions.
Longtime readers know that any Sunda Strait quake causes me some concern, since a 7.0 or greater quake usually follows within a short period of time somewhere else (in fact, in the extended NERVS hypothesis, the Sunda Strait region may well be the "origination point" for most NERVS patterns).
A 5.4 quake in the Sunda Strait, as well as quakes in Tonga, Fiji, Myanmar, Eastern New Guinea Region PNG, and the Kermadec Islands yield the following NERVS update:
4.5 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Southern California including the Santa Barbara Channel, Northern California (including offshore), Central California
- Secondary vector: Oregon, Washington, Vancouver Island, Taiwan, Iran, Turkey, Hindu-Kush region Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan
- Also possible: China, Tajikistan, Romania
*While primarily focusing on California, I consider any accurate West Coast quake from Vancouver Island to Baja California as validation of a primary vector. Secondary and tertiary vectors help confirm the overall pattern, but I generally don't count them as accuracy validation.
NERVS Accuracy Check
Region: OFF COAST OF OREGON
Geographic coordinates: 43.939N, 128.463W
Magnitude: 5.2 Mb
Depth: 10 km
Universal Time (UTC): 29 Aug 2009 10:11:17
Time near the Epicenter: 29 Aug 2009 01:11:17
Local standard time in your area: 29 Aug 2009 02:11:17
Geographic coordinates: 43.939N, 128.463W
Magnitude: 5.2 Mb
Depth: 10 km
Universal Time (UTC): 29 Aug 2009 10:11:17
Time near the Epicenter: 29 Aug 2009 01:11:17
Local standard time in your area: 29 Aug 2009 02:11:17
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
***NEW***
Your fault? If buying a home in the Bay Area, you may also be buying increased risk. Your disclosure packet should contain an assessment of earthquake risk based on your home's proximity to known faults. The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) uses the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale to rate estimated quake damage. See a description here: http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/doc/mmi.html
What California emergency services are available before and after a large event? See the California Emergency Management Agency's plan. http://www.oes.ca.gov/WebPage/oeswebsite.nsf/Content/A1F2F25F0947AF848825741F006015EF?OpenDocument
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An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes
And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html
If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults.
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.
Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:
For preparedness and response information, see:
Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.
What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:
What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:
Archived Test Videos
When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates:
Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
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