Yes, I felt it, too. Officially, this quake was under the NERVS threshold of 4.5:
| Magnitude | 4.1 |
|---|---|
| Date-Time |
|
| Location | 37.477°N, 121.797°W |
| Depth | 9 km (5.6 miles) |
| Region | SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA |
However, according to the NERVS hypothesis, the evidence of a quake was clear. I'm working on two deadlines and didn't have time to send out the latest NERVS update this morning, but I was planning to based on a clear NERVS pattern setup in the last few days. Among other signals:
- A 7.2 in the Solomon Islands
- China
- Chile/Peru/Ecuador
- Myanmar
- Guerrero, Mexico
- Guatemala
- Iran
- Japan
- New Britain Region, PNG
- Macquarie Island Region
- Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
- Tonga
- Fox Islands
- Komandorskiye Ostrova region
- Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (near Iceland)
While I'm disappointed in missing this one, evidence for the NERVS hypothesis is stronger than ever since it's clear that I should have been able to get ahead of this quake. (Notice also the Baja, California quake a few days ago, which occurred while I was on vacation and not checking quakes regularly, and which was preceded by a similar pattern).
BTW, I've been considering Twitter or similar to do a short version of the NERVS update when under deadline. I'll make an announcement if I choose to go that route.
As a final note, there have been a couple of occasions in the last few decades where a smaller Bay Area quake preceded a significantly larger one, so now may be a good time to review your earthquake kit, batteries, food and water, etc.
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
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Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
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