The last NERVS update was accurate, with a 4.6 quake occurring offshore Northern California on March 6, and subsequent quakes occurring near Oregon later that day. An unusual 4.4 quake also occurred in Sonoma just after the release of the last update, officially below the 4.5 minimum threshold, but close enough to be of interest. Thanks to NERVS member Ryan for drawing my attention to that event.
Quakes in Honshu, Japan can be early precedents to NERVS pattern quakes, so after yesterday's 7.2, I've been watching for additional pattern development. A 6.6 quake in New Britain, PNG today suggested a pattern may be developing, and a 5.4 quake in Myanmar is further reason for confidence. Those quakes, along with activity near the Costa Rica/Panama border, yield the following NERVS update:
4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Southern California, Central California (potentially the Hollister - San Simeon - Coalinga area), Northern California, Oregon, Washington, Vancouver Island, Baja and the Gulf of California
- Secondary vector: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Caspian Sea, Yukon, Alaska
- Also possible: Taiwan, Iran, Greece, Bouvet Island, near Antarctica
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
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Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.
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