NERVS update

Hi All, 

The last NERVS update was accurate for California, with a 4.8 quake occurring in the Gulf of California within the correct time and magnitude. 

A later and more powerful 5.6 quake also occurred in the Gulf of California Tuesday before I could send out a more recent update. But preceding quakes over the prior 48 hours did form a common NERVS pattern, including activity in Taiwan, Pakistan, Vanuatu, Tonga, Kamchatka Peninsula, Peru-Ecuador border region, the Aleutian Islands and Guerrero, Mexico.

In the past few years, quakes in the Gulf of California have frequently preceded other California or West Coast quakes. That fact, along with quakes in Valparaiso, Chile and the East Pacific Rise suggest the possible formation of another NERVS pattern, or at least the continuation of one already in place. These data, then, yield the following NERVS update:

4.0 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Vancouver Island, Washington, Baja California, Northern California (including offshore), Southern California, Central California (including offshore)
- Secondary vector: Alaska (Aleutian Islands or Central), Nevada, Utah, Western Canada, Oklahoma
- Also possible: Iran, Turkey, Italy, Greece, Romania, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 



Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

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Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update was not accurate for California, but close, with a 4.35 quake occurring off the California coast (near Big Sur) within the time range. However, secondary vectors, including multiple qualifying quakes in the Aleutian islands, were accurate.

A 4.5 quake occurred in Nevada yesterday, which was also a part of the last update's primary vector but outside the time range by several days. However, that quake may indicate a developing NERVS pattern, and a 5.9 quake off the coast of Nicaragua further suggests a new pattern developing. These two quakes, along with recent activity in the Greenland Sea, Northern East Pacific Rise, Central Mongolia, PNG and the Kermadec Islands, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Vancouver Island, Washington, Baja and the Gulf of California, Northern California, Southern California, Central California
- Secondary vector: Alaska (Aleutian Islands or Central), Nevada, Utah, Western Canada
- Also possible: Iran, Turkey, Italy, Greece, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kenya, Kashmir

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.