The last NERVS update was not accurate for California, but close, with a 4.35 quake occurring off the California coast (near Big Sur) within the time range. However, secondary vectors, including multiple qualifying quakes in the Aleutian islands, were accurate.
A 4.5 quake occurred in Nevada yesterday, which was also a part of the last update's primary vector but outside the time range by several days. However, that quake may indicate a developing NERVS pattern, and a 5.9 quake off the coast of Nicaragua further suggests a new pattern developing. These two quakes, along with recent activity in the Greenland Sea, Northern East Pacific Rise, Central Mongolia, PNG and the Kermadec Islands, yield the following NERVS update:
4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Vancouver Island, Washington, Baja and the Gulf of California, Northern California, Southern California, Central California
- Secondary vector: Alaska (Aleutian Islands or Central), Nevada, Utah, Western Canada
- Also possible: Iran, Turkey, Italy, Greece, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kenya, Kashmir
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
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Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.
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