The last NERVS update, which expired August 23, was accurate for the secondary vector, with a 5.6 quake occurring off the coast of Washington on August 19. Other smaller but qualifying quakes within the secondary and tertiary vectors also occurred.
On August 24, a 5.0 quake occurred near the Balleny Islands region. Activity in this region, like the Sunda Strait, frequently precedes a large event.
Today (three days after the last update's expiration) a swarm of earthquakes began occurring in Southern California in the Imperial Valley near the Salton Sea. Within the last 90 minutes, a 7.4 quake was reported off the west coast of Central America near Nicaragua and El Salvador. Significant quakes in this region tend to precede California quakes.
Before I could finish this latest update, a 5.2 occurred in the Gulf of California, and the quake swarm in Southern California is expected to continue, so the most recent pattern could be resolved. However, quakes in the Moluccas, Pacific-Antarctic Ridge, Antofagasta (Chile), and Reykjanes Ridge suggest that a NERVS pattern is still in the process of forming, which could impact Central or Northern California. Thus, these quakes, in combination with the 7.4 off Central America, yield the following NERVS update:
4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Central California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore) - separate from the current swarm
- Secondary vector: Oregon, Nevada, Washington, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, Western Canada (including Vancouver Island); or a large quake in Alaska
- Also possible: Myanmar, Xinjiang region (China), Pakistan, Georgia (near Tbilisi), Tajikistan
- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Central California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore) - separate from the current swarm
- Secondary vector: Oregon, Nevada, Washington, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, Western Canada (including Vancouver Island); or a large quake in Alaska
- Also possible: Myanmar, Xinjiang region (China), Pakistan, Georgia (near Tbilisi), Tajikistan
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
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