Monday, March 22, 2010

NERVS update

Hi All, 

The last NERVS update was accurate, with a 4.5 quake occurring in Central California (near Bradley, CA) within the right time frame and magnitude. A new NERVS pattern developed almost immediately following that quake, which resulted in two Oregon quakes, both of which were too fast to capture based on my schedule, and a 4.4 in Los Angeles, which is officially under the NERVS threshold of 4.5, but which would have been easy to identify had I had time.

The number and magnitude of aftershocks based on the 8.8 Chile quake is amazing, and is making some pattern detection a little more difficult. However, 5.0 quakes in Valparaiso and Aisen, Chile, as well as quakes in Fiji, Tonga, the Molucca Sea, Siberia and Lake Baykal (Russia), the Kermadec Islands, Myanmar,  Guerrero (Mexico) and a spate of quakes in the Aleutian Islands, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude quake in the next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Southern California (including offshore and Baja), Northern California, Oregon, Central California
- Secondary vector: Italy, Alaska (potentially large), Washington, Nevada, Vancouver Island, Hindu Kush (Afghanistan), Kazakhstan
- Also possible: Western Xizang (China), Pakistan, Iran, Sunda Strait



***SPECIAL SECTION UPDATE***
The NERVS Special Section below was originally posted on October 24, 2009 3:11:10 PM PDT. Some NERVS readers have wondered whether the 8.8 Chile quake essentially fulfills the possibility raised in the original post of another 9.0 or greater quake occurring in 2009 or early 2010. 

It's possible. Of note, though, is a potential correlation between Aleutian, Chilean and Californian quakes, which may suggest additional future activity. For example:

- On April 18, 1906 at 5:12 AM, the great San Francisco quake occurred, with modern magnitude estimates between 7.7 - 8.3. 
- Four months later, on August 17, 1906, two major quakes occurred within less than 30 minutes of one another:
- Magnitude 8.0 in the Aleutian Islands
- Magnitude 8.5 at Valparaiso, Chile 

It's also worth noting that moderate to strong activity in the Aleutian Islands, along with 5.0+ quakes in Chile, have preceded most 5.0+ Bay Area quakes from 1973 to 2007 in the 30-35 days prior to each event. From a NERVS standpoint, then, this suggests the possibility of a 9.0 or greater quake yet to occur...potentially in the Aleutian Islands or Kamchatka Peninsula region.


Here's the original post, sent several months prior to the 8.8 Chile quake:

**SPECIAL SECTION*** 
Past NERVS updates included the observation that quake frequency has risen noticeably in the last few years compared to the early 2000s. At the same time, overall magnitudes seem to have dropped. However, 2009 has seen two changes: greater frequency of quakes AND a larger number of high magnitude (7.0 or greater) quakes. 

In 2004, an increase in frequency of high magnitude quakes ultimately led to the 9.2 Indian Ocean quake and subsequent tsunami (originally registered as 8.5 by the USGS as indicated below). It is possible that an increase of high magnitude quakes will generally precede a 9.x quake.

Based on a comparison of 7.0 or greater quakes that occurred in 2004 and 2009, and taking into account the hypothesis stated above, it seems possible that another 9.0 or greater quake may occur sometime in 2009 or early 2010. This would be significant: 

"Since 1900 the only earthquakes recorded with a greater magnitude [than the 2004 Indian Ocean quake] were the 1960 Great Chilean Earthquake (magnitude 9.5) and the 1964 Good Friday Earthquake in Prince William Sound (9.2). The only other recorded earthquake of magnitude 9.0 or greater was off Kamchatka, Russia, on November 4, 1952 (magnitude 9.0)." - Wikipedia


Quakes with magnitude 7.0 or greater: January - December, 2004

2004/02/05 21:05 M 7.0 IRIAN JAYA, INDONESIA Z= 10km  3.59S 135.55E2004/02/07 02:42 M 7.1 IRIAN JAYA, INDONESIA Z= 10km  4.00S 135.05E
2004/07/15 04:27 M 7.1 FIJI REGION Z=560km 17.48S 179.01W
2004/09/05 10:07 M 7.0 S. COAST OF WESTERN HONSHU Z= 20km 33.09N 136.63E
2004/09/05 14:57 M 7.1 S. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN Z= 10km 33.15N 137.04E
2004/10/09 21:26 M 7.1 COAST OF NICARAGUA Z= 61km 11.41N  86.55W
2004/11/15 09:06 M 7.0 WEST COAST OF COLOMBIA Z= 10km  4.61N  77.54W
2004/11/22 20:26 M 7.3 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z. Z= 10km 46.57S 164.83E
2004/11/26 02:25 M 7.2 PAPUA, INDONESIA Z= 35km  3.63S 135.48E
2004/11/28 18:32 M 7.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION Z= 44km 43.00N 145.09E
2004/12/23 14:59 M 8.1 MACQUARIE ISLAND Z= 10km 50.24S 160.13E
2004/12/26 00:58 M 8.5 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA Z= 10km  3.30N  95.78E


Quakes with magnitude 7.0 or greater: January - October to date (10/24/2009)

2009-01-03 19:43:54 (Mw 7.6) NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA -0.5 132.8

2009-01-03 22:33:42 (Mw 7.5) NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA -0.7 133.2

2009-01-15 17:49:39 (Mw 7.3) EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS 46.9 155.2

2009-02-11 17:34:52 (Mw 7.0) KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA 3.9 126.4

2009-02-18 21:53:49 (Mw 7.0) KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION -27.4 -176.4

2009-03-19 18:17:37 (Mw 7.9) TONGA REGION -23.0 -174.8

2009-04-07 04:23:34 (Mw 7.0) KURIL ISLANDS 46.1 151.4

2009-05-28 08:24:45 (M 7.1) NORTH OF HONDURAS 16.8 -86.2

2009-07-15 09:22:32 (Mw 7.8) OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z. -45.7 166.6

2009-08-09 10:55:56 (Mw 7.1) IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 33.1 138.0

2009-08-10 19:55:39 (M 7.6) ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION 14.0 92.9

2009-08-16 07:38:26 (Mw 7.0) KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA -1.4 99.5

2009-09-02 07:55:02 (Mw 7.4) JAVA, INDONESIA -7.8 107.3

2009-09-29 17:48:19 (Mw 7.9) SAMOA ISLANDS REGION -15.6 -172.3

2009-09-30 10:16:10 (Mw 7.9) SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA -0.8 99.9

2009-10-07 22:03:15 (Mw 7.8) VANUATU -13.1 166.2

2009-10-07 23:13:49 (M 7.1) VANUATU -13.1 166.3

2009-10-07 22:18:26 (Mw 7.7) SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS -12.6 166.3

2009-10-08 08:28:47 (M 7.0) VANUATU -13.1 166.1

2009-10-24 14:40:44 (Mw 7.0) BANDA SEA -6.2 130.3


***End Special Section***

***END SPECIAL SECTION UPDATE***


-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

-----

Obtaining Drinking Water from your Water Heater 
Damaged or broken supply pipes, compromised treatment facilities or loss of pressure could make obtaining clean water a top priority after a major quake. Don't forget about your water heater—it's a great resource for gallons of usable water. Keeping the water inside is one reason to brace it. 

A spigot or other outflow device should be present on the bottom of your gas or electric water heater.  Examine the top as well—you may have faucet handles or other shut-off valves to limit inflow of contaminated water. Remember that multiple strong aftershocks can continue after the initial quake, so make sure the gas is off before spending much time in front of your water heater, and avoid any ignition source until you're sure residual gas has had time to clear. More: http://www.earthquakecountry.info/daretoprepare/stuff/waterheater.html


-----

Your fault? 
If buying a home in the Bay Area, you may also be buying increased risk. Your disclosure packet should contain an assessment of earthquake risk based on your home's proximity to known faults. The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) uses the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale to rate estimated quake damage. See a description here: http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/doc/mmi.html

-----

What California emergency services are available before and after a large event? See the California Emergency Management Agency's plan. http://www.oes.ca.gov/WebPage/oeswebsite.nsf/Content/A1F2F25F0947AF848825741F006015EF?OpenDocument

-----

An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes

And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html

-----

If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.

Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

For preparedness and response information, see:

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos in this simulation:
Archived Test Videos

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:




Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate


----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.
Posted by at No comments:

Sunday, February 28, 2010

NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update was accurate, with a 4.0 quake occurring in
Central California within the right time frame and magnitude. Two
additional large quakes have happened as well: a 7.0 in the Ryukyu
islands (Japan) and the 8.8 in Chile. These areas are both within well-
established NERVS vectors, and their magnitude alone yields this next
update. However, quakes in Crete and Hindu Kush (Afghanistan) are also
vectors, and quakes there may give additional likelihood to a
California quake, which yields the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude quake in next ten days:
- Primary vector: Central California, Northern California, Southern
California, Oregon, Aleutian Islands, central Australia, offshore
central Japan, Kazakhstan
- Secondary vector: central China, Washington state, Canada, Alaska,
New Britain, PNG
- Also possible: based on 8.8 magnitude quake, another large quake is
possible anywhere worldwide

At a later time (when I'm not typing on my iPhone) I'll also resend
the 7.0+ quake timeline, which shows the high incidence of large
magnitude quakes over the last few months. As you may recall, another
9.0 or greater seemed feasible in the near term. While the 8.8 is
close, more analysis is needed to suggest whether the Chile quake is
the resolution of that possibility, or whether another significant
event is likely in the near term.

Thank you for participating in this experiment.

Sent from my iPhone

Posted by at No comments:

Sunday, February 21, 2010

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes in Tonga, Myanmar and Iran yield the following NERVS update:

4.0 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Northern California, Southern California (including Baja), Central California
- Secondary vector: Washington, Nevada, Turkey, Afghanistan
- Also possible: Iceland, New Zealand, Costa Rica

-----

NERVS Accuracy Check

...will be completed at a later time


-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

-----


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate


----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.




Posted by at No comments:

Monday, February 8, 2010

NERVS update

Hi All, 

The previous NERVS update was somewhat close, with two California quakes occurring within ten days of the expiration date. So while it's possible that the latest activity is actually a post-California pattern, there's enough of a setup to warrant another update. Thus, quakes in Tonga, Fiji, Taiwan and Oaxaca, Mexico yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Northern California, Southern California (including Baja), Central California, Alaska
- Secondary vector: Washington, Nevada, Myanmar, Turkey, Hindu Kush (Afghanistan)
- Also possible: Iceland, India, China

-----

NERVS Accuracy Check

...will be completed at a later time


-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

-----

Haiti Damage Shows Importance of a Plan and Preparation
This still unfolding disaster clearly illustrates the need for proactive steps. CNN/Time has an interactive chart showing the largest and deadliest quakes in the last 100 years. See it here:

-----

Obtaining Drinking Water from your Water Heater 
Damaged or broken supply pipes, compromised treatment facilities or loss of pressure could make obtaining clean water a top priority after a major quake. Don't forget about your water heater—it's a great resource for gallons of usable water. Keeping the water inside is one reason to brace it. 

A spigot or other outflow device should be present on the bottom of your gas or electric water heater.  Examine the top as well—you may have faucet handles or other shut-off valves to limit inflow of contaminated water. Remember that multiple strong aftershocks can continue after the initial quake, so make sure the gas is off before spending much time in front of your water heater, and avoid any ignition source until you're sure residual gas has had time to clear. More: http://www.earthquakecountry.info/daretoprepare/stuff/waterheater.html


-----

Your fault? 
If buying a home in the Bay Area, you may also be buying increased risk. Your disclosure packet should contain an assessment of earthquake risk based on your home's proximity to known faults. The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) uses the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale to rate estimated quake damage. See a description here: http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/doc/mmi.html

-----

What California emergency services are available before and after a large event? See the California Emergency Management Agency's plan. http://www.oes.ca.gov/WebPage/oeswebsite.nsf/Content/A1F2F25F0947AF848825741F006015EF?OpenDocument

-----

An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes

And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html

-----

If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.

Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

For preparedness and response information, see:

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos in this simulation:
Archived Test Videos

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:




Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

Posted by at No comments:

Sunday, January 17, 2010

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes in Japan, Iran, Greece, Drake Passage, New Britain, PNG, the Kermadecs and Komandoriskye Ostrova show the emergence of a NERVS pattern. It's somewhat lower in magnitude than usual, but the increased overall frequency of 7.0 quakes in the last year, coupled with the recent 7.0 in Haiti*, yields the following NERVS update

4.5 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Taiwan, Northern California, Southern California, Central California
- Secondary vector: Washington, Myanmar, Offshore California (including Channel Islands)
- Also possible: Tarapaca (Chile), Iceland, Lake Tanganyika (Africa)

*Recent activity suggests that quakes 7.0 or greater potentially signal a possible second large quake anywhere in the world.


-----

NERVS Accuracy Check

...will be completed at a later time


-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

-----

Haiti Damage Shows Importance of a Plan and Preparation
This unfolding disaster clearly illustrates the need for proactive steps. CNN/Time has an interactive chart showing the largest and deadliest quakes in the last 100 years. See it here:

-----

Obtaining Drinking Water from your Water Heater 
Damaged or broken supply pipes, compromised treatment facilities or loss of pressure could make obtaining clean water a top priority after a major quake. Don't forget about your water heater—it's a great resource for gallons of usable water. Keeping the water inside is one reason to brace it. 

A spigot or other outflow device should be present on the bottom of your gas or electric water heater.  Examine the top as well—you may have faucet handles or other shut-off valves to limit inflow of contaminated water. Remember that multiple strong aftershocks can continue after the initial quake, so make sure the gas is off before spending much time in front of your water heater, and avoid any ignition source until you're sure residual gas has had time to clear. More: http://www.earthquakecountry.info/daretoprepare/stuff/waterheater.html


-----

Your fault? If buying a home in the Bay Area, you may also be buying increased risk. Your disclosure packet should contain an assessment of earthquake risk based on your home's proximity to known faults. The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) uses the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale to rate estimated quake damage. See a description here: http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/doc/mmi.html

-----

What California emergency services are available before and after a large event? See the California Emergency Management Agency's plan. http://www.oes.ca.gov/WebPage/oeswebsite.nsf/Content/A1F2F25F0947AF848825741F006015EF?OpenDocument

-----

An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes

And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html

-----

If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.

Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

For preparedness and response information, see:

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos in this simulation:
Archived Test Videos

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:




Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate



----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.
Posted by at No comments:

Friday, January 8, 2010

NERVS update

Hi All, 

You may have felt the most recent quake, which occurred at 11:48 am in virtually the same location as yesterday's 4.1 temblor. USGS reports this as a 3.8. Definitely felt here in Sunnyvale.

While this quake is consistent with an aftershock, I'm also watching a pattern of quakes near the Solomon Islands and New Zealand. Of particular interest are the Kermadec Islands near Tonga and the Macquarie Islands region near New Zealand, since quakes in those areas have consistently preceded California quakes in the last couple of years. While not yet clear, it seems that frequency and magnitude in this region are on the increase rather than decreasing. That increase leads me to believe that we're not yet done developing a NERVS pattern, yielding the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Italy, Greece, Iran, Japan, Southern California, Central California, Gulf of California
- Secondary vector: Oregon, Eastern Africa
- Also possible: Kamchatka Peninsula, Hawaii, Tarapaca (Chile)


-----

NERVS Accuracy Check

...will be completed at a later time


-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

-----

Water, water everywhere and not a drop to drink? 
Damaged or broken supply pipes, compromised treatment facilities or loss of pressure could make obtaining clean water a top priority after a major quake. Don't forget about your water heater—it's a great resource for gallons of usable water. Keeping the water inside is one reason to brace it. 

A spigot or other outflow device should be present on the bottom of your gas or electric water heater.  Examine the top as well—you may have faucet handles or other shut-off valves to limit inflow of contaminated water. Remember that multiple strong aftershocks can continue after the initial quake, so make sure the gas is off before spending much time in front of your water heater, and avoid any ignition source until you're sure residual gas has had time to clear. More: http://www.earthquakecountry.info/daretoprepare/stuff/waterheater.html


-----

Your fault? If buying a home in the Bay Area, you may also be buying increased risk. Your disclosure packet should contain an assessment of earthquake risk based on your home's proximity to known faults. The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) uses the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale to rate estimated quake damage. See a description here: http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/doc/mmi.html

-----

What California emergency services are available before and after a large event? See the California Emergency Management Agency's plan. http://www.oes.ca.gov/WebPage/oeswebsite.nsf/Content/A1F2F25F0947AF848825741F006015EF?OpenDocument

-----

An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes

And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html

-----

If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.

Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

For preparedness and response information, see:

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos in this simulation:
Archived Test Videos

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:




Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate



----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.




Posted by at No comments:

Thursday, January 7, 2010

NERVS update - I know, I know

Hi All, 

Yes, I felt it, too. Officially, this quake was under the NERVS threshold of 4.5: 
Magnitude4.1
Date-Time
  • Thursday, January 07, 2010 at 18:09:35 UTC
  • Thursday, January 07, 2010 at 10:09:35 AM at epicenter
Location37.477°N, 121.797°W
Depth9 km (5.6 miles)
RegionSAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA


However, according to the NERVS hypothesis, the evidence of a quake was clear. I'm working on two deadlines and didn't have time to send out the latest NERVS update this morning, but I was planning to based on a clear NERVS pattern setup in the last few days. Among other signals: 
- A 7.2 in the Solomon Islands
- China
- Chile/Peru/Ecuador
- Myanmar
- Guerrero, Mexico
- Guatemala
- Iran
- Japan
- New Britain Region, PNG
- Macquarie Island Region
- Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
- Tonga
- Fox Islands
- Komandorskiye Ostrova region
- Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (near Iceland)

While I'm disappointed in missing this one, evidence for the NERVS hypothesis is stronger than ever since it's clear that I should have been able to get ahead of this quake. (Notice also the Baja, California quake a few days ago, which occurred while I was on vacation and not checking quakes regularly, and which was preceded by a similar pattern).

BTW, I've been considering Twitter or similar to do a short version of the NERVS update when under deadline. I'll make an announcement if I choose to go that route.

As a final note, there have been a couple of occasions in the last few decades where a smaller Bay Area quake preceded a significantly larger one, so now may be a good time to review your earthquake kit, batteries, food and water, etc.





-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

-----

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate










Posted by at No comments:
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