NERVS update

Hi All, 

The most recent NERVS update was partially accurate, as several quakes occurred within the appropriate risk vectors, including two in the primary vector (Baja, California and Oregon), but not at the magnitude of 5.0 or greater. 

However, additional quakes have occurred in key areas, including Chile, Taiwan, China and Myanmar, and the pattern setting up still suggests a larger potential quake somewhere in California. These events combine to yield the following NERVS update:

5.0 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:

- Primary vector: Central California including an epicenter location near the Bay Area (e.g. Alum Rock), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including an epicenter in the LA basin), Oregon, Washington

- Secondary vector: Central Alaska, Vancouver Island, Iran, Kentucky, Congo, Nevada

- Also possible: Turkey, Greece, Romania, Albania, Utah, Wyoming

NERVS Accuracy Check

Last round included several quakes that occurred within the risk vectors and time envelope, though not at the correct magnitude for a West Coast quake. Details to come at a later time.

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:

Numerical (or "non-scientific")

Earthquake

Risk

Vector

System

...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes

And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html

If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 

When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/simulations/hayward/

Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

http://deimos3.apple.com/WebObjects/Core.woa/Browse/berkeley.edu.1177911588

For preparedness and response information, see:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/preparedness.php

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:

http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/eqfloods/floods.html

Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/seishaz/prepare/office.php

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:

Archived Test Videos

http://nees.buffalo.edu/projects/NEESWood/video.asp

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&gl=us&ptab=2&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=114896433391258936310.00043ec877e3a5d8328f8

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----

Nate Myers

nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes throughout the risk vectors, including Pakistan, Tonga, Kyushu (Japan), Komandorskiye Ostrova (Russia), and two quakes in Italy (including a 6.3), yield the following NERVS update. This pattern may have the potential to produce a large California quake:

5.0 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:

- Primary vector: Central California including an epicenter location near the Bay Area (e.g. Alum Rock), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including an epicenter in the LA basin), Oregon, Washington

- Secondary vector: Central Alaska, Vancouver Island, Iran, Kentucky

- Also possible: Taiwan, Turkey, Greece, Kashmir, Costa Rica

NERVS Accuracy Check

Last round included several quakes that occurred within the risk vectors and time envelope, including a Southern California quake. The most noticeable Bay Area quake was a magnitude 4.4, and occurred one day outside the envelope. More details to come at a later time.

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:

Numerical (or "non-scientific")

Earthquake

Risk

Vector

System

...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

***NEW***

An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes

And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html

If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 

When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/simulations/hayward/

Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

http://deimos3.apple.com/WebObjects/Core.woa/Browse/berkeley.edu.1177911588

For preparedness and response information, see:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/preparedness.php

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:

http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/eqfloods/floods.html

Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/seishaz/prepare/office.php

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:

Archived Test Videos

http://nees.buffalo.edu/projects/NEESWood/video.asp

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&gl=us&ptab=2&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=114896433391258936310.00043ec877e3a5d8328f8

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----

Nate Myers

nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes throughout the risk vectors and a 7.9 quake in Tonga yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:

- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Oregon, Washington, Southern California (including offshore, Baja and Gulf of California), Central California

- Secondary vector: Central Alaska, Vancouver Island, Italy, Iran, Sunda Strait

- Also possible: China, Japan, Taiwan

NERVS Accuracy Check

Last round included several quakes that occurred within the risk vectors and time envelope, though the most dramatic SF area quake fell short in magnitude (3.5). More detailed accuracy check with be completed at another time.

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:

Numerical (or "non-scientific")

Earthquake

Risk

Vector

System

...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

***NEW***

Hey. Whoah. An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes

And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html

If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 

When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/simulations/hayward/

Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

http://deimos3.apple.com/WebObjects/Core.woa/Browse/berkeley.edu.1177911588

For preparedness and response information, see:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/preparedness.php

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:

http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/eqfloods/floods.html

Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/seishaz/prepare/office.php

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:

Archived Test Videos

http://nees.buffalo.edu/projects/NEESWood/video.asp

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&gl=us&ptab=2&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=114896433391258936310.00043ec877e3a5d8328f8

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----

Nate Myers

nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Short version again. Quakes in Iran, Pakistan, New Ireland, P.N.G. Myanmar and Fiji yield the following NERVS update:

4.0 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:

- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Oregon, Washington, Southern California (including offshore, Baja and Gulf of California), Central California

- Secondary vector: Alaska, Nevada, Utah, Vancouver Island, Italy, Lake Tanganyika

- Also possible: Wyoming, Montana, China, Japan, Chile, Costa Rica or Guatemala, Southern Africa, Poland

NERVS Accuracy Check

Last round included several quakes that occurred within the risk vectors and time envelope. Quick snapshot of west coast quakes that were semi-accurate:

A quake in Oregon was two days outside the time envelope:

Region:                            OFF COAST OF OREGON
Geographic coordinates:            43.263N, 126.800W
Magnitude:                        4.8 Mb
Depth:                            10 km
Universal Time (UTC):             28 Feb 2009  22:24:40
Time near the Epicenter:          28 Feb 2009  14:24:40
Local standard time in your area: 28 Feb 2009  14:24:40

A quake in Baja was three days outside the time envelope:

Region:                            OFF COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
Geographic coordinates:            21.897N, 108.480W
Magnitude:                        4.7 Mb
Depth:                            10 km
Universal Time (UTC):              1 Mar 2009  12:14:45
Time near the Epicenter:           1 Mar 2009  05:14:45
Local standard time in your area:  1 Mar 2009  04:14:45

***Also of interest:

- Several smaller quakes (below the NERVS threshold) have been personally felt or reported by NERVS members in Cupertino and the South Bay. Bay City News Service reports two small quakes that struck Saturday night and Sunday morning:  Read more at http://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/show_story.php?id=11402

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:

Numerical (or "non-scientific")

Earthquake

Risk

Vector

System

...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 

When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/simulations/hayward/

Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

http://deimos3.apple.com/WebObjects/Core.woa/Browse/berkeley.edu.1177911588

For preparedness and response information, see:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/preparedness.php

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:

http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/eqfloods/floods.html

Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/seishaz/prepare/office.php

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:

Archived Test Videos

http://nees.buffalo.edu/projects/NEESWood/video.asp

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&gl=us&ptab=2&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=114896433391258936310.00043ec877e3a5d8328f8

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----

Nate Myers

nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Short version again, based on my schedule. Quakes in Tonga, Iran, Greece, New Britain and Bougainville, P.N.G. the Kamchatka Peninisula, southern China and Honshu, Japan yield the following NERVS update:

4.0 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:

- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Oregon, Washington, Southern California (including offshore, Baja and Gulf of California), Central California

- Secondary vector: Alaska, Nevada, Utah, Vancouver Island, Italy, Wyoming, Montana

- Also possible: Philippines, Myanmar, Turkey

NERVS Accuracy Check

***Last round included several quakes that occurred within the risk vectors. Will be produced at a later time***

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:

Numerical (or "non-scientific")

Earthquake

Risk

Vector

System

...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 

When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/simulations/hayward/

Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

http://deimos3.apple.com/WebObjects/Core.woa/Browse/berkeley.edu.1177911588

For preparedness and response information, see:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/preparedness.php

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:

http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/eqfloods/floods.html

Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/seishaz/prepare/office.php

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:

Archived Test Videos

http://nees.buffalo.edu/projects/NEESWood/video.asp

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&gl=us&ptab=2&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=114896433391258936310.00043ec877e3a5d8328f8

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----

Nate Myers

nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Short version again, based on my schedule. Quakes in Fiji, New Ireland P.N.G. and the Kamchatka Peninisula yield the following NERVS update:

4.0 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:

- Primary vector: Southern California (including offshore, Baja and Gulf of California), Central California, Northern California (including offshore), Myanmar, Pakistan, Greece

- Secondary vector: Alaska, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Utah, Vancouver Island, Taiwan, Iran, Italy

- Also possible: Wyoming, Montana

- Additionally, a higher level of activity seems to be presenting under the central United States (Wyoming, Oklahoma), and interestingly, may relate to increased activity under central Europe. Though not within the current scope of the NERVS experiment (California-focused), we'll see how this develops.

NERVS Accuracy Check

***Last round included several quakes that occurred within the risk vectors. Will be produced at a later time***

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:

Numerical (or "non-scientific")

Earthquake

Risk

Vector

System

...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 

When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/simulations/hayward/

Is unusual seismic activity responsible for undersea cables snapping in the Mediterranean? BBC reports:

18:52 GMT, Friday, 19 December 2008—Internet and phone communications between Europe, the Middle East, and Asia have been seriously disrupted after submarine cables were severed…the cause of the break is as yet unknown, although some seismic activity was reported near Malta shortly before the cut was detected…"We've lost three out of four lines. If the fourth cable breaks, we're looking at a total blackout in the Middle East," said Mr Wright…"Normally you would expect to see one major break per cable per year…For this to happen twice in one year, on the same cable, is a serious cause for concern."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7792688.stm

Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

http://deimos3.apple.com/WebObjects/Core.woa/Browse/berkeley.edu.1177911588

For preparedness and response information, see:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/preparedness.php

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:

http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/eqfloods/floods.html

Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/seishaz/prepare/office.php

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:

Archived Test Videos

http://nees.buffalo.edu/projects/NEESWood/video.asp

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&gl=us&ptab=2&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=114896433391258936310.00043ec877e3a5d8328f8

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----

Nate Myers

nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Some interesting patterns have been developing that are worth further exploration (and help explain the absence of two NERVS updates prior to the two most recent California quakes). More to come at a later date.

For now, though, based on my schedule, this is an abbreviated NERVS update. Quakes in Japan, Crete and Tonga yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:

- Primary vector: Central California, Southern California (including offshore, Baja and Gulf of California), Northern California (including offshore), Myanmar, Italy

- Secondary vector: Alaska, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Utah, Vancouver Island, Taiwan, Iran, Afghanistan, Chile

- Also possible: Wyoming, Montana, Kamchatka Peninsula, Pakistan

- Additionally, an unusual level of recent activity in central Europe suggests the possibility of an event there

NERVS Accuracy Check

***Will be produced at a later time***

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:

Numerical (or "non-scientific")

Earthquake

Risk

Vector

System

...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 

When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/simulations/hayward/

Is unusual seismic activity responsible for undersea cables snapping in the Mediterranean? BBC reports:

18:52 GMT, Friday, 19 December 2008—Internet and phone communications between Europe, the Middle East, and Asia have been seriously disrupted after submarine cables were severed…the cause of the break is as yet unknown, although some seismic activity was reported near Malta shortly before the cut was detected…"We've lost three out of four lines. If the fourth cable breaks, we're looking at a total blackout in the Middle East," said Mr Wright…"Normally you would expect to see one major break per cable per year…For this to happen twice in one year, on the same cable, is a serious cause for concern."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7792688.stm

Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

http://deimos3.apple.com/WebObjects/Core.woa/Browse/berkeley.edu.1177911588

For preparedness and response information, see:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/preparedness.php

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:

http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/eqfloods/floods.html

Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/seishaz/prepare/office.php

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:

Archived Test Videos

http://nees.buffalo.edu/projects/NEESWood/video.asp

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&gl=us&ptab=2&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=114896433391258936310.00043ec877e3a5d8328f8

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----

Nate Myers

nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.