NERVS update

Hi All,

Though outside the normal NERVS experiment protocol, the last NERVS
update was accurate, with two 7.0+ quakes occurring after the most
recent Macquarie Island quake: a 7.6 in the Kermadec Islands, and the
deadly 7.3 quake in Turkey last week.

Thanks to those who are now following the NERVSupdate Twitter feed.
The rapid response format allowed an accurate pattern recognition on
October 24, prior to the latest 4.8 Northern California quake on
October 26, as well as prior identification of heightened activity in
the Aleutian Islands.

Along with the Fox/Aleutian Island activity, quakes in Hindu Kush,
Xinjiang (China), Taiwan, Peru, Iran and a 4.7 in the Sunda Strait on
October 29, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 15 days:
- Primary vector: Utah, Nevada, Wyoming, Southern California
(including Baja), Central California (including offshore), Northern
California (including offshore)
- Secondary vector: Washington, Oregon, western Canada
- Also possible: Eastern Russia, Bhutan, Myanmar, Italy; plus a 7.0+
quake based on Sunda Strait activity

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar
patterns of quakes in other areas.

Twitter Feed
To subscribe, please follow: NERVSupdate

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email
to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this
list.

Nate

NERVS update & Twitter feed

Hi All, 

Thanks to those who informed me of the dual 4.1 California quakes that occurred earlier today near Berkeley, CA. For more information, please see below.

The last NERVS update was somewhat accurate, in that I sent it out shortly after a 4.0 quake occurred in Southern California (which I was not aware of at the time since I typically don't track quakes of less than 4.5 magnitude). Of special note, however, was the 6.8 quake that occurred in Sikkim, India. As a possible risk vector, I had indicated Bhutan, the border of which was less than 100 miles away from the epicenter.

Regarding today's two Bay Area quakes, the latest NERVS pattern was evident yesterday morning, and was reinforced today by a 5.1 quake West of Macquarie Island. In the enclosed chart, please notice that almost every quake in that region has preceded a West Coast quake within 10 days (as indicated by the flag icon). In the three quakes that don't have a flag, the quake on Jan 12, 2011 occurred shortly after a California quake (which is accounted for in the NERVS hypothesis), while those on May 9 and August 14 produced unusual quake activity in Spain and Colorado, respectively. Of potential interest as well, which may be followed up on later, is a 4.6 quake that occurred earlier today in Texas.

I should note that as an empirical observation only, quakes near Macquarie Island, like those in the Sunda Strait, seem to occasionally precede significant quakes (7.0+) by a few days. That two smaller Bay Area quakes should occur so soon after the latest Macquarie Island quake suggests that additional preparation and vigilance may be prudent for Bay Area residents over the next 10 days. This observation, while outside the core NERVS hypothesis, forms the most recent NERVS update.

***Introducing the NERVS update Twitter feed***

In keeping with this experiment, I try to send NERVS updates as patterns become evident. However, both my own schedule and external factors can cause a delay of hours, and sometimes days, before I'm able to do a brief analysis and put together an update email (for example, in addition to a lag time for today's quakes, I also missed sending an update prior to a recent 5.9 Oregon quake, despite clear evidence of an emerging NERVS pattern). 

Because some patterns are now established to such a degree that comparative analysis is less necessary, though, it makes sense to try more rapid updates through Twitter. 

To subscribe, please follow: NERVSupdate

The updates provided by the NERVSupdate Twitter feed may be somewhat less accurate in specificity, but may enhance timeliness. 

Chart of quakes West of Macquarie Island preceding West Coast quakes:

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.



Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update (August 23) was accurate, with a 4.8 quake occurring in Central California on August 27. Quakes in the secondary and tertiary vectors were also accurate.

More recent quakes in Taiwan, Hokkaido, Honshu, near the west coast of Colombia, New Zealand, Chile, Greece, Hindu Kush (Afghanistan) and a 6.1 quake near the Aleutian Islands yield the following update:

4.0 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Gulf of California, Central California (including offshore), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California, Baja California, Oregon
- Secondary vector: Washington, Nevada, Utah, Iceland, Myanmar, Italy, Turkey, central China, western Canada
- Also possible: Iran, eastern Russia, Bhutan

(As an additional note, two west coast quakes occurred subsequent to the last update: a 6.7 quake in the Vancouver Island region on September 9th and a 4.6 in the Gulf of California on September 10. Though the indications of a new NERVS pattern developing were present, I did not send out an update before those quakes occurred.)

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update, which was made on July 9, 2011, was not accurate for the primary vector. For the ten days following, no California quake of sufficient magnitude occurred. However a 5.9 quake occurred in the Gulf of California on July 26, eight days after the update expired. And quakes in secondary and tertiary vectors, including a quake in the Lake Baykal region (Russia), were accurate.

I'm traveling today, so I started—but didn't have a chance to finish—the latest NERVS update before I boarded a plane, during which time the second of two unusual events occurred, and which could have an impact on California.

The first, which occurred yesterday (or this morning, UTC) was a 5.5 quake near Cokedale, Colorado. It was preceded by a 4.6, also in Colorado, and represents the most powerful Colorado quake in 40 years.

The second is the 5.8 quake which occurred near Mineral, Virginia, and which was widely felt across the Eastern U.S. It represents that state's most powerful quake in a century.

Both of these events occur in combination with a third unusual condition as it relates to the NERVS hypothesis: a decline in West Coast quake activity in response to NERVS patterns. In the last two to three months, relatively few California quakes have occurred, and any of significant magnitude tend to have been localized to the Baja area. I'm not sure yet what to make of this potential decline. However, while not part of the NERVS hypothesis, there is a noteworthy similarity in the first two events that might bear on the third. Notice especially the following latitudes (the first number):
Honshu, Japan: 38.322N 142.369E (site of the 9.0 quake in March)
Cokedale, CO: 37.137N 104.671W
Mineral, VA: 37.881N 77.952W
Cupertino, CA: 37.200N 122.00W
It may be interesting to test whether great quakes can create "stress latitudes" for a period of time afterward. If so, this may suggest that energy normally used to produce California quakes is somehow being diverted eastward along a relatively narrow curvilinear path.

The events that prompt this NERVS update are the recent 7.5 quake in Vanuatu, which is a high-incidence NERVS precursor for California quakes, and a number of smaller pattern-oriented quakes, including a small magnitude quake in Hindu Kush (Afghanistan). If the Colorado and Virginia quakes did not resolve the most recent NERVS pattern, then this NERVS update is for the following:

4.0 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Central California (including offshore), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California, Baja California, Oregon
- Secondary vector: Nevada, Utah, Central China, Iceland, Myanmar, Taiwan, Portugal, Spain, Italy
- Also possible: Chile, Peru, Alaska Peninsula, Madagascar, Tanzania

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate
----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update, which was made on May 6, 2011, was not accurate for the primary vector. In that update, the magnitude of other potential pattern quakes was low, which also lowered the minimum magnitude threshold of a qualifying quake to 4.0. For the following ten days, no California quake of sufficient magnitude occurred, though a 3.9 did occur in Nevada within the specified time range, and other quakes in the secondary and tertiary vectors also occurred. Of note is an increase of quake activity in Alaska, which was suggested as part of the last update.

Also missed, based on my schedule but within recognizable NERVS patterns, were two more recent California quakes: a 4.5 in Baja on June 9, and a 4.8 off the Northern California coast on June 18.

However, since that period of frequent but relatively low magnitude quakes, three significant quakes have occurred: a 7.4 in the Fox/Aleutian islands on June 23, a 7.7 quake in the Kermadec Islands on July 6, and a 7.0 in Honshu earlier today (July 9). Large quakes in these areas (or near, in the case of the Kermadecs) have occurred prior to California quakes. Thus, these three significant quakes, along with recent quakes in Taiwan, the Western Mediterranean Sea, Oaxaca and Myanmar yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Southern California, Central California (including offshore), Baja California, Oregon, Vancouver Island, Washington, Nevada

- Secondary vector:  Utah, Western Canada, Central China, Iceland, Greenland
- Also possible: Hindu Kush region (Afghanistan), Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Illinois, eastern Russia

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.



Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate


----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update was accurate, with a 4.5 quake occurring in Central California within the right timeframe and magnitude. Also of interest was a 4.7 magnitude quake in Romania, which was included in the last update as a possible quake location.

Recent activity in Taiwan, the Aleutian Islands, the Svalbard region, Guerrero (Mexico), Sichuan (China), Antofagasta (Chile) and Myanmar suggest a new NERVS pattern may be forming. That activity thus yields the following NERVS update:

4.0 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Baja California, Northern California (including offshore), Southern California, Central California (including offshore), Oregon, Vancouver Island, Washington
- Secondary vector: Alaska (increased activity in the Aleutian Islands or Central), Nevada, Utah, Western Canada
- Also possible: Iran, Turkey, Italy, Greece, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All, 

The last NERVS update was accurate for California, with a 4.8 quake occurring in the Gulf of California within the correct time and magnitude. 

A later and more powerful 5.6 quake also occurred in the Gulf of California Tuesday before I could send out a more recent update. But preceding quakes over the prior 48 hours did form a common NERVS pattern, including activity in Taiwan, Pakistan, Vanuatu, Tonga, Kamchatka Peninsula, Peru-Ecuador border region, the Aleutian Islands and Guerrero, Mexico.

In the past few years, quakes in the Gulf of California have frequently preceded other California or West Coast quakes. That fact, along with quakes in Valparaiso, Chile and the East Pacific Rise suggest the possible formation of another NERVS pattern, or at least the continuation of one already in place. These data, then, yield the following NERVS update:

4.0 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Vancouver Island, Washington, Baja California, Northern California (including offshore), Southern California, Central California (including offshore)
- Secondary vector: Alaska (Aleutian Islands or Central), Nevada, Utah, Western Canada, Oklahoma
- Also possible: Iran, Turkey, Italy, Greece, Romania, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan
-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 



Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.