NERVS update

Hi All, 

Thanks to everyone who commented on the accuracy of the last NERVS update (a Nevada quake within the time and magnitude). Since then, one (or possibly more) California quakes occurred that resulted from a known pattern but that happened too fast for me to catch. However, since those possible or confirmed California events, additional pattern activity has occurred that may signal possible future California or West Coast quakes, including a 7.8 in the Bonin Islands, Japan Region, quakes in Hindu Kush, Afghanistan and Tajikistan, Tonga, Southern Sumatra, Southern Qinghai, China, and Djibouti. This activity, along with the 7.0 event on the Alaska Peninsula on 29 May, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Nevada, Arizona, Central California, Oregon (including offshore), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja, offshore, and Greater Los Angeles Area), Utah 

- Secondary vector: Montana, Wyoming, New Mexico

- Also possible: Burma (Myanmar), Vancouver Island, Sichuan (China), Croatia


Additionally, though not directly part of the NERVS experiment, I've previously suggested that the empirically observed odd cessation of aftershock or "normal" activity after a large event (such as yesterday's 7.8 Bonin Islands quake) may precede another large event. While too early to tell, the lack of activity in the last 10-12 hours is worth further observation over the next 24-48 hours.

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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


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Nate

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235