Friday, July 3, 2015

NERVS update

Hi All, 

A general NERVS pattern is developing, and though many events are not of a significant magnitude,  a 5.0 quake in Hawaii, a 5.7 quake in the Macquarie Island Region, a 6.4 quake in Southern Xinjiang, China, and a 6.0 in Leyte, Philippines (along with a seemingly unresolved 7.0 event in the Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge on June 17) yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon (including offshore), Central California (including the Santa Barbara Channel), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Nevada
- Secondary vector: Nayarit or Jalisco (Mexico), Utah, Nevada, Montana, Wyoming, Washington, Arizona
- Also possible: Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Western Iran


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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


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Nate

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408-515-2235





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