NERVS update

Hi All, 

Two West Coast events occurred within the last few weeks that fit the NERVS experiment protocol and that followed a known precursor pattern: a 4.5 event in Nevada and a 6.6 event in the Gulf of California. In both cases the pattern was evident, but no update was issued based on my schedule.

The 8.3 event in Chile that occurred on 16 September 2015 is outside of the main NERVS event target area, but long-time subscribers are aware that I'm also exploring the possibility of quakes in certain locations preceding large events by a few days, and that is what occurred in the Chile case. Specifically, the quake listed here , which occurred five days prior to the Chile event, suggested the strong possibility of a major event:

2015-09-11 20:10:53 (M4.7) SOUTH OF AFRICA -52.6 27.9 (1c243)

Another possible Flinn-Engdahl region that frequently appears to act as a precursor to major quakes is West of Macquarie Island. Two quakes in that region earlier today, a 5.0 event and a 4.6 event, along with quakes in New Britain (PNG), Central Alaska, Mindanao, Burma-India Border Region, Hokkaido, Kepulauan Mentawai Region (Indonesia), Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge, North Island of New Zealand, Chiapas, Mexico, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Near the East Coast of Kamchatka, Russia, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Central California (including the Santa Barbara Channel), Northern California (including offshore), Oregon (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Nevada

- Secondary vector: Revilla Gigedo Islands Region, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, Montana, Wyoming

- Also possible: Iran, Iceland, Sunda Strait

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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


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Nate

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natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235