Thursday, August 20, 2009

NERVS update

Hi All, 

The last NERVS update was validated by a 4.9 Northern California quake within the vector magnitude and time window.

Since then, general quake activity has shown a marked upswing in magnitude, include powerful quakes 7.0 or higher in Japan and Indonesia. If there's any merit to growing magnitude incidents as a precursor to a larger event, we could see another 7.0 or greater quake worldwide in the near future.

In the meantime, quakes in Japan, Tonga, Norway, China and Russia yield the following NERVS update:

4.0 or greater magnitude quake in next 15 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Washington, Northern California, Southern California, Central California
- Secondary vector: Iran, Chile (Antofagasta), Vancouver Island, Greece, Mexico (Chiapas)
- Also possible: Sichuan-Gansu region, China, Tajikistan, Taiwan


NERVS Accuracy Check
Region:                            OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Geographic coordinates:            40.316N, 124.625W
Magnitude:                        4.9 Mw
Depth:                            16 km
Universal Time (UTC):              7 Aug 2009  10:49:34
Time near the Epicenter:           7 Aug 2009  03:49:34
Local standard time in your area:  7 Aug 2009  02:49:34

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 



***NEW***
Your fault? If buying a home in the Bay Area, you may also be buying increased risk. Your disclosure packet should contain an assessment of earthquake risk based on your home's proximity to known faults. The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) uses the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale to rate estimated quake damage. See a description here: http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/doc/mmi.html

What California emergency services are available before and after a large event? See the California Emergency Management Agency's plan. http://www.oes.ca.gov/WebPage/oeswebsite.nsf/Content/A1F2F25F0947AF848825741F006015EF?OpenDocument

---

An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes

And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html


If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.


Thumbnail of animation



Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

For preparedness and response information, see:

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:
Archived Test Videos

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:




Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate


----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.




Wednesday, August 5, 2009

NERVS update

Hi All, 

The last abbreviated NERVS update was marginally accurate at best. Timing was off by 7 days and location specified by "Southern California", while including Baja, was still a stretch to cover actual quake location. However, a rapid series of 4 large quakes struck the Gulf of California on August 3, suggesting that the NERVS pattern is at least somewhat intact. 

Since that time, quakes near Siberia, Ryukyu Island (Japan),  Eastern New Guinea Region P.N.G., Myanmar and the Black Sea (near Bulgaria)  yield the following NERVS update:

4.0 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Southern California including Baja but potentially the LA Basin, Northern California (including offshore…potentially near Fortuna), Central California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington
- Secondary vector: Afghanistan, Southern Iran, Chile (Aisen), Vancouver Island
- Also possible: Sichuan-Gansu region, China, Tajikistan, Sunda Strait


NERVS Accuracy Check
Last update was marginally accurate for California. However, other quakes within the Risk Vectors did occur within time and range. Details to come at a later time.

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 



An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes

And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html


If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.


Thumbnail of animation



Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

For preparedness and response information, see:

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:
Archived Test Videos

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:




Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate


----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.




Friday, April 17, 2009

NERVS update

Hi All, 

The most recent NERVS update was partially accurate, as several quakes occurred within the appropriate risk vectors, including two in the primary vector (Baja, California and Oregon), but not at the magnitude of 5.0 or greater. 
However, additional quakes have occurred in key areas, including Chile, Taiwan, China and Myanmar, and the pattern setting up still suggests a larger potential quake somewhere in California. These events combine to yield the following NERVS update:

5.0 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Central California including an epicenter location near the Bay Area (e.g. Alum Rock), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including an epicenter in the LA basin), Oregon, Washington
- Secondary vector: Central Alaska, Vancouver Island, Iran, Kentucky, Congo, Nevada
- Also possible: Turkey, Greece, Romania, Albania, Utah, Wyoming


NERVS Accuracy Check
Last round included several quakes that occurred within the risk vectors and time envelope, though not at the correct magnitude for a West Coast quake. Details to come at a later time.

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 




An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes

And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html



If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.


Thumbnail of animation



Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

For preparedness and response information, see:

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:
Archived Test Videos

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:




Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.




Sunday, April 5, 2009

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes throughout the risk vectors, including Pakistan, Tonga, Kyushu (Japan), Komandorskiye Ostrova (Russia), and two quakes in Italy (including a 6.3), yield the following NERVS update. This pattern may have the potential to produce a large California quake:

5.0 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Central California including an epicenter location near the Bay Area (e.g. Alum Rock), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including an epicenter in the LA basin), Oregon, Washington
- Secondary vector: Central Alaska, Vancouver Island, Iran, Kentucky
- Also possible: Taiwan, Turkey, Greece, Kashmir, Costa Rica


NERVS Accuracy Check
Last round included several quakes that occurred within the risk vectors and time envelope, including a Southern California quake. The most noticeable Bay Area quake was a magnitude 4.4, and occurred one day outside the envelope. More details to come at a later time.

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 




***NEW***
An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes

And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html



If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.


Thumbnail of animation



Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

For preparedness and response information, see:

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:
Archived Test Videos

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:




Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.




Thursday, March 19, 2009

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes throughout the risk vectors and a 7.9 quake in Tonga yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Oregon, Washington, Southern California (including offshore, Baja and Gulf of California), Central California
- Secondary vector: Central Alaska, Vancouver Island, Italy, Iran, Sunda Strait
- Also possible: China, Japan, Taiwan


NERVS Accuracy Check
Last round included several quakes that occurred within the risk vectors and time envelope, though the most dramatic SF area quake fell short in magnitude (3.5). More detailed accuracy check with be completed at another time.

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 




***NEW***
Hey. Whoah. An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes

And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html



If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.


Thumbnail of animation



Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

For preparedness and response information, see:

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:
Archived Test Videos

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:




Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate


----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.




Monday, March 2, 2009

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Short version again. Quakes in Iran, Pakistan, New Ireland, P.N.G. Myanmar and Fiji yield the following NERVS update:


4.0 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Oregon, Washington, Southern California (including offshore, Baja and Gulf of California), Central California
- Secondary vector: Alaska, Nevada, Utah, Vancouver Island, Italy, Lake Tanganyika
- Also possible: Wyoming, Montana, China, Japan, Chile, Costa Rica or Guatemala, Southern Africa, Poland


NERVS Accuracy Check
Last round included several quakes that occurred within the risk vectors and time envelope. Quick snapshot of west coast quakes that were semi-accurate:
A quake in Oregon was two days outside the time envelope:
Region:                            OFF COAST OF OREGON
Geographic coordinates:            43.263N, 126.800W
Magnitude:                        4.8 Mb
Depth:                            10 km
Universal Time (UTC):             28 Feb 2009  22:24:40
Time near the Epicenter:          28 Feb 2009  14:24:40
Local standard time in your area: 28 Feb 2009  14:24:40


A quake in Baja was three days outside the time envelope:
Region:                            OFF COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
Geographic coordinates:            21.897N, 108.480W
Magnitude:                        4.7 Mb
Depth:                            10 km
Universal Time (UTC):              1 Mar 2009  12:14:45
Time near the Epicenter:           1 Mar 2009  05:14:45
Local standard time in your area:  1 Mar 2009  04:14:45

***Also of interest:
- Several smaller quakes (below the NERVS threshold) have been personally felt or reported by NERVS members in Cupertino and the South Bay. Bay City News Service reports two small quakes that struck Saturday night and Sunday morning:  Read more at http://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/show_story.php?id=11402


-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 




If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.


Thumbnail of animation



Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

For preparedness and response information, see:

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:
Archived Test Videos

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:




Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.




Monday, February 16, 2009

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Short version again, based on my schedule. Quakes in Tonga, Iran, Greece, New Britain and Bougainville, P.N.G. the Kamchatka Peninisula, southern China and Honshu, Japan yield the following NERVS update:


4.0 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Oregon, Washington, Southern California (including offshore, Baja and Gulf of California), Central California
- Secondary vector: Alaska, Nevada, Utah, Vancouver Island, Italy, Wyoming, Montana
- Also possible: Philippines, Myanmar, Turkey


NERVS Accuracy Check
***Last round included several quakes that occurred within the risk vectors. Will be produced at a later time***


-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 




If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.


Thumbnail of animation



Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

For preparedness and response information, see:

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:
Archived Test Videos

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:




Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate


----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.