NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update was accurate, though barely, with a quake occurring a couple hundred miles south of the Baja California tip (Revilla Gigedo Islands) within the specified time period and magnitude. Interestingly, there were also a small series of Bay Area quakes within the right time frame but just slightly under the specified magnitude.

A more recent 4.5 quake occurred in Oregon that followed quakes in the right locations but at low magnitudes, which led me to conclude that a West Coast quake of sufficient magnitude would not occur. Thus, the lack of an update was a miss, but the NERVS pattern holds.

Quakes in the last few days in Myanmar, Taiwan, the Aleutian Islands and the recent 7.0 Chilean quake on Feb 11 yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California), Oregon, Washington
- Secondary vector: Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Mexico, Iran, Afghanistan, Northern Italy
- Also possible: British Columbia, Vancouver Island, Chile

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update was accurate, with two quakes occurring California within the specified time period and magnitude. There was also a Bay Area quake within the right time frame but just slightly under the specified magnitude. Thanks to all who brought my attention to this quake.

More recent quakes in Myanmar, Iran, Taiwan and Chiapas, Mexico yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Washington, Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California)
- Secondary vector: Nevada, Utah, Alaska Peninsula
- Also possible: British Columbia, Vancouver Island, Chile

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update was accurate, with quakes occurring in the Gulf of California and in Baja California within the specified time period and magnitude.

Quakes in Myanmar, Iran, Japan, Chile, Taiwan, west of Macquarie Island and a 6.3 Southeast of Loyalty Islands yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California),
- Secondary vector: Nevada, Utah, Washington, Alaska Peninsula
- Also possible: Western or Central Australia, British Columbia, Vancouver Island

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update was accurate, with quakes occurring in the Gulf of California and in Baja California within the specified time period and magnitude.

Quakes in Myanmar, Iran, Japan, Chile, Taiwan, west of Macquarie Island and a 6.3 Southeast of Loyalty Islands yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California),
- Secondary vector: Nevada, Utah, Washington, Alaska Peninsula
- Also possible: Western or Central Australia, British Columbia, Vancouver Island

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

Since the last NERVS update, three additional patterns have developed, all of which resulted in California quakes, and all of which I missed based on my schedule. With our recent remodeling work (mostly) out of the way, I'm able to respond to this developing pattern. Quakes in Myanmar, Iran, Japan, west of Macquarie Island and a 6.9 in PNG yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California),
- Secondary vector: Taiwan, China, Peru, Vancouver Island
- Also possible: Western or Central Australia, British Columbia

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update ***updated***

Hi All, 

The most recent NERVS update was partially accurate, with quakes occurring in the secondary vector within the time and magnitude range (including Taiwan, Myanmar and Alaska), and a large quake (7.3 in Papua, New Guinea) occurring within ten days of the most recent Sunda Strait quake. A 5.1 quake occurred along the West Coast (Vancouver Island), but that quake was not part of the last NERVS update (it also was not reported through the USGS email notification but was indicated on their quake monitoring website). 

The lack of a California quake within 10 days of the Sunda Strait quake is noteworthy, especially since a large quantity of other NERVS indicators have been activated since July 9th, including relatively rare activity somewhat near, but not on, Bouvet Island (a precursor to some large Bay Area quakes in the past). Of interest as well is the series of three magnitude 7.0+ quakes off Mindanao, Philippines that occurred on Friday, July 23 (PDT) in rapid succession.

Overall, quake activity has seen a marked increase in frequency and intensity since the most recent Sunda Strait quake, and it seems that that quake is the most appropriate marker for a NERVS pattern. So I'm going to take the unusual step of modifying and extending the last NERVS update--essentially undoing the expiration date and resetting it for an additional length of time--rather than issue a new update. Simultaneously, based on historical data, I'm going to suggest a watch period that will extend beyond the standard update and cover a longer range between the Sunda Strait quake and the next California quake. Therefore, the latest modified NERVS update is as follows:

5.0 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:

- Primary vector: Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California), Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Utah

- Secondary vector: Kazakhstan, Kamchatka Peninsula, Caspian Sea, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Peru, Vancouver Island

- Also possible: Western or Central Australia, Japan (potentially large), Azores, British Columbia

- Watch period: Central Coast quake (Sonoma - San Simeon) within next 30 days

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:

Numerical (or "non-scientific")

Earthquake

Risk

Vector

System

...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

NERVS update

Hi All, 

The last NERVS update was accurate, with a 5.4 quake occurring in Southern California within the date and magnitude range.

Earlier today, a 5.2 quake occurred in the Sunda Strait, which many of you know is of special interest, since quakes there tend to be followed by a large quake (7.0 or greater) within a short period of time (typically 10 days or fewer). Sunda Strait quakes are also almost always followed by a 4.5 or greater California quake as well. So that quake, along with quakes in Albania, Chile and the Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:

- Primary vector: Oregon, Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California), Utah 

- Secondary vector: Taiwan, Mongolia, Myanmar, Alaska

- Also possible: Lake Tanganyika Region (Africa), Norway/Sweden

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:

Numerical (or "non-scientific")

Earthquake

Risk

Vector

System

...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate