NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update was accurate, with a 4.6 quake occurring offshore Northern California on March 6, and subsequent quakes occurring near Oregon later that day. An unusual 4.4 quake also occurred in Sonoma just after the release of the last update, officially below the 4.5 minimum threshold, but close enough to be of interest. Thanks to NERVS member Ryan for drawing my attention to that event.

Quakes in Honshu, Japan can be early precedents to NERVS pattern quakes, so after yesterday's 7.2, I've been watching for additional pattern development. A 6.6 quake in New Britain, PNG today suggested a pattern may be developing, and a 5.4 quake in Myanmar is further reason for confidence. Those quakes, along with activity near the Costa Rica/Panama border, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Southern California, Central California (potentially the Hollister - San Simeon - Coalinga area), Northern California, Oregon, Washington, Vancouver Island, Baja and the Gulf of California
- Secondary vector: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Caspian Sea, Yukon, Alaska
- Also possible: Taiwan, Iran, Greece, Bouvet Island, near Antarctica

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update was accurate, with a quake occurring in Baja California within the specified time period and magnitude (a 5.0 on Feb 20).

Quakes in the last few days in Japan, Tonga, Chile, Crete and Afghanistan (Hindu Kush region) yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Washington, Vancouver Island, Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California)
- Secondary vector: Nevada, Utah, Wyoming
- Also possible: Myanmar, China, Taiwan, Siberia

Though not part of the NERVS experiment, an increase of activity in Arkansas is also of interest. Subsequent potential quakes in Portugal, the Caribbean, the Middle East, central Europe or the United Kingdom will be particularly noteworthy.

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update was accurate, though barely, with a quake occurring a couple hundred miles south of the Baja California tip (Revilla Gigedo Islands) within the specified time period and magnitude. Interestingly, there were also a small series of Bay Area quakes within the right time frame but just slightly under the specified magnitude.

A more recent 4.5 quake occurred in Oregon that followed quakes in the right locations but at low magnitudes, which led me to conclude that a West Coast quake of sufficient magnitude would not occur. Thus, the lack of an update was a miss, but the NERVS pattern holds.

Quakes in the last few days in Myanmar, Taiwan, the Aleutian Islands and the recent 7.0 Chilean quake on Feb 11 yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California), Oregon, Washington
- Secondary vector: Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Mexico, Iran, Afghanistan, Northern Italy
- Also possible: British Columbia, Vancouver Island, Chile

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update was accurate, with two quakes occurring California within the specified time period and magnitude. There was also a Bay Area quake within the right time frame but just slightly under the specified magnitude. Thanks to all who brought my attention to this quake.

More recent quakes in Myanmar, Iran, Taiwan and Chiapas, Mexico yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Washington, Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California)
- Secondary vector: Nevada, Utah, Alaska Peninsula
- Also possible: British Columbia, Vancouver Island, Chile

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update was accurate, with quakes occurring in the Gulf of California and in Baja California within the specified time period and magnitude.

Quakes in Myanmar, Iran, Japan, Chile, Taiwan, west of Macquarie Island and a 6.3 Southeast of Loyalty Islands yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California),
- Secondary vector: Nevada, Utah, Washington, Alaska Peninsula
- Also possible: Western or Central Australia, British Columbia, Vancouver Island

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update was accurate, with quakes occurring in the Gulf of California and in Baja California within the specified time period and magnitude.

Quakes in Myanmar, Iran, Japan, Chile, Taiwan, west of Macquarie Island and a 6.3 Southeast of Loyalty Islands yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California),
- Secondary vector: Nevada, Utah, Washington, Alaska Peninsula
- Also possible: Western or Central Australia, British Columbia, Vancouver Island

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

Since the last NERVS update, three additional patterns have developed, all of which resulted in California quakes, and all of which I missed based on my schedule. With our recent remodeling work (mostly) out of the way, I'm able to respond to this developing pattern. Quakes in Myanmar, Iran, Japan, west of Macquarie Island and a 6.9 in PNG yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California),
- Secondary vector: Taiwan, China, Peru, Vancouver Island
- Also possible: Western or Central Australia, British Columbia

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.