NERVS update

Hi All, 

I hope you're well :) It has been a while since the last NERVS update through email.

Most recent NERVS pattern activity has been communicated through the NERVSupdate Twitter feed, with accurate precursors to the 5.x off the coast of Northern California 25 Jan 2018, and the 4.9 event off the coast of Oregon 28 Jan 2018. Though outside the NERVS protocol, a 3.7 event in Oklahoma yesterday is also notable.

Those events may have resolved recent precursor activity. However, the occurrence of ≥m7 events (7.6 in Honduras 9 Jan 2018, 7.3 near the coast of southern Peru 14 Jan 2018, and the 7.9 Gulf of Alaska quake 23 Jan 2018), along with ≥m6 events in Hindu Kush region, Fiji region, Pacific-Antarctic Ridge, and Taiwan yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Offshore Northern California, Northern California, Southern California (including offshore), Central California (including offshore), Oregon (including offshore)

- Secondary vector: Nevada, Baja California, Gulf of California, Utah, Idaho, Arizona, Oklahoma

- Also possible: Vancouver Island (Canada), Washington, Wyoming


An additional note: While outside the NERVS protocol, the activity off the coast of Honduras makes events in the Southern U.S. particularly interesting. As an adjunct to the main NERVS experiment, I'll be keeping an eye on any events that occur in Arkansas, Missouri, the Memphis metro area, northern Texas, or central Oklahoma, especially around Lake Texoma.



-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Activity within the NERVS experiment area, especially California, has continued to be light and at low magnitudes, and as a result, most pattern identification has been communicated through the NERVSupdate Twitter feed. However, a rapid uptick in precursor activity along with a notable rise in magnitude, including events in Myanmar, Lac Kivu region (Congo), Xinjiang (China), Iran, Honshu (Japan), Taiwan, Vanuatu, and the 7.1 event in Puebla, Mexico, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Central California (including offshore), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including offshore), Oregon (including offshore)

- Secondary vector: Baja California (including offshore), New Mexico, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Oklahoma (if so, 5.0+)
- Also possible: Vancouver Island (Canada), Washington



-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Most NERVS pattern identification has been happening in the NERVSupdate Twitter feed, so a formal email hasn't been released for several months. However, the late December 7.7 event near Los Lagos, Chile and 6.2 event in Sumbawa Region, Indonesia, along with today's 5.1 event in Burma and 7.2 quake South of the Fiji Islands, yields the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Southern California (including offshore), Oregon (including offshore), Northern California (including offshore), Central California

- Secondary vector: Baja California (including offshore), New Mexico
- Also possible: Alaska, Nevada



-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Events off the East Coast of the North Island, N.Z., Gulf of Alaska, Taiwan, Southwest of Africa, and Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon (including offshore), Northern California (including offshore), Nevada, Southern California (including offshore), Central California, Baja California (including offshore), Utah, Arizona
- Secondary vector: Vancouver Island, Montana, Wyoming
- Also possible: M7 or greater worldwide (based on activity Southwest of Africa)



-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Events in the Strait of Gibraltar, Burma, and Alaska, along with a 5.8 quake earlier today Southwest of Africa yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California, Offshore Northern California, Offshore Southern California, Southern California, Greater Los Angeles Area, Central California, Baja California (including offshore), Nevada, Utah, Wyoming

- Secondary vector: Oregon (including offshore), Montana, Arizona, Nevada

- Also possible: M7 or greater worldwide (see table below)

While outside the NERVS protocol, long-time subscribers know that certain phenomena are sometimes highlighted as circumstances warrant. This includes the possible existence of locations that tend to serve as precursors to large quakes (e.g. Sunda Strait) when events there are of sufficient magnitude (4.5+). The Flinn-Engdahl Region designated "Southwest of Africa" is not only a precursor for California quakes, but also may be a large event precursor. Notice the approximate chronological relationship between all events 4.5m or greater Southwest of Africa since 2007, and magnitude 7+ events within the subsequent 20 days (with the one m6.6 Kamchatka exception that was eclipsed 5 days later by a 7.8 in Scotia Sea):

While there does not appear to be a clear relationship between the precursor event magnitude and its subsequent large event, it is noteworthy that today's event represents the largest magnitude event in the series.

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Events in Eastern Xizang, Xinjiang, a 6.7 quake in Hokkaido, Japan and a 5.4 event in the Macquarie Island Region yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Central California, Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Nevada, Utah 

- Secondary vector: Oregon (including offshore), Montana, Wyoming, Arizona

- Also possible: Myanmar

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

A general NERVS pattern over the last 10-14 days, including quakes in the Svalbard Region, Burma-India Border Region, Greece, and a 6.8 event in the Solomon Islands earlier today yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Nevada, Central California, Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Utah 

- Secondary vector: Vancouver Island, Oregon (including offshore), Montana, Wyoming, Arizona

- Also possible: Iran, Bering Strait

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

The last NERVS update on 21 September 2015 was accurate for California and Nevada, with events in the Gulf of California and Nevada occurring at or near the threshold magnitude and within the specified time frame.

However, a possible event in the Sunda Strait was mentioned as a tertiary possibility, and an event did occur there on 4 October 2015 at the appropriate magnitude, but three days past the specified time frame (which started 21 September and ended 1 October). Long-time subscribers to this list are aware of an adjunct hypothesis which suggests that events in certain locations, including Sunda Strait, often precede events at or greater than 7.0 magnitude.

While no large event followed that quake within 10 days, a second event in the Sunda Strait on 14 October preceded a 7.3 event in Vanuatu on 20 October. Large events in Vanuatu, in turn, appear frequently in NERVS patterns for California. It is of interest that a swarm of quakes has occurred near Santa Rosa over the last several days, but since none of those events has surpassed the minimum 4.0 magnitude needed for this experiment, they are not included as potential evidence of a NERVS pattern. So while that swarm may have resolved the most recent NERVS pattern, this experiment suggests that the 7.3 event in Vanuatu, along with recent quakes in Scotia Sea, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, New Ireland Region (PNG), Tajikistan, Western Iran, Burma, Taiwan, and Hindu Kush Region (Afghanistan) should nonetheless yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:

- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Central California, Oregon (including offshore), Idaho, Utah

- Secondary vector: Vancouver Island, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Montana, Wyoming, Revilla Gigedo Islands Region

- Also possible: Iceland, Caspian Sea

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Two West Coast events occurred within the last few weeks that fit the NERVS experiment protocol and that followed a known precursor pattern: a 4.5 event in Nevada and a 6.6 event in the Gulf of California. In both cases the pattern was evident, but no update was issued based on my schedule.

The 8.3 event in Chile that occurred on 16 September 2015 is outside of the main NERVS event target area, but long-time subscribers are aware that I'm also exploring the possibility of quakes in certain locations preceding large events by a few days, and that is what occurred in the Chile case. Specifically, the quake listed here , which occurred five days prior to the Chile event, suggested the strong possibility of a major event:

2015-09-11 20:10:53 (M4.7) SOUTH OF AFRICA -52.6 27.9 (1c243)

Another possible Flinn-Engdahl region that frequently appears to act as a precursor to major quakes is West of Macquarie Island. Two quakes in that region earlier today, a 5.0 event and a 4.6 event, along with quakes in New Britain (PNG), Central Alaska, Mindanao, Burma-India Border Region, Hokkaido, Kepulauan Mentawai Region (Indonesia), Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge, North Island of New Zealand, Chiapas, Mexico, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Near the East Coast of Kamchatka, Russia, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Central California (including the Santa Barbara Channel), Northern California (including offshore), Oregon (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Nevada

- Secondary vector: Revilla Gigedo Islands Region, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, Montana, Wyoming

- Also possible: Iran, Iceland, Sunda Strait

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

A general NERVS pattern is developing, and though many events are not of a significant magnitude,  a 5.0 quake in Hawaii, a 5.7 quake in the Macquarie Island Region, a 6.4 quake in Southern Xinjiang, China, and a 6.0 in Leyte, Philippines (along with a seemingly unresolved 7.0 event in the Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge on June 17) yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon (including offshore), Central California (including the Santa Barbara Channel), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Nevada

- Secondary vector: Nayarit or Jalisco (Mexico), Utah, Nevada, Montana, Wyoming, Washington, Arizona

- Also possible: Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Western Iran

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Thanks to everyone who commented on the accuracy of the last NERVS update (a Nevada quake within the time and magnitude). Since then, one (or possibly more) California quakes occurred that resulted from a known pattern but that happened too fast for me to catch. However, since those possible or confirmed California events, additional pattern activity has occurred that may signal possible future California or West Coast quakes, including a 7.8 in the Bonin Islands, Japan Region, quakes in Hindu Kush, Afghanistan and Tajikistan, Tonga, Southern Sumatra, Southern Qinghai, China, and Djibouti. This activity, along with the 7.0 event on the Alaska Peninsula on 29 May, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Nevada, Arizona, Central California, Oregon (including offshore), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja, offshore, and Greater Los Angeles Area), Utah 

- Secondary vector: Montana, Wyoming, New Mexico

- Also possible: Burma (Myanmar), Vancouver Island, Sichuan (China), Croatia


Additionally, though not directly part of the NERVS experiment, I've previously suggested that the empirically observed odd cessation of aftershock or "normal" activity after a large event (such as yesterday's 7.8 Bonin Islands quake) may precede another large event. While too early to tell, the lack of activity in the last 10-12 hours is worth further observation over the next 24-48 hours.

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes near the East Coast of Honshu, Southern Xinjiang (China), Ecuador, Hindu Kush Region (Afghanistan), Taiwan, and the Mid-Indian Ridge yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Nevada, Oregon (including offshore), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Central California

- Secondary vector: Utah, Montana, Wyoming, Washington, Arizona, New Mexico

- Also possible: Burma (Myanmar), Vancouver Island, Iran

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes in Honshu, Yunnan (China), Kashmir-Xizang Border Region, Sunda Strait, Oaxaca, and South of Africa yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon (including offshore), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Central California

- Secondary vector: Idaho, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Washington, Arizona, New Mexico

- Also possible: Vancouver Island

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes in the South Sandwich Islands, Easter Island, Burma (Myanmar), Taiwan, New Ireland, PNG, along with a 5.9 in Jalisco and a 4.9 in the Sunda Strait, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon (including offshore), Northern California, Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Central California

- Secondary vector: Nevada, Utah, Washington, Arizona, New Mexico

- Also possible: Haida Gwaii (Canada)

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

NERVS update

Hi All,

We're currently traveling through southern Africa and only have intermittent internet and USGS notification access. Regrettably, the largest Bay Area quake in 25 years struck during this time. Hopefully you and your loved ones have not sustained substantial damage to health or property.

According to seismologists, the chance of a larger earthquake in the same general region statistically increases rather than decreases in the short-term. We haven't accessed any local news coverage, but no doubt preparation for a future event is being encouraged.

Sent from my iPhone

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes in many precursor locations, among them the Northern and Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the South Sandwich Islands region, southern Iran, Eastern Sichuan, China, and a 5.6 in Northern Algeria, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon (including offshore), Baja California (including offshore) Northern California, Southern California, Central California

- Secondary vector: Vancouver Island, Arizona, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Washington, Utah, Nevada

- Also possible: Nayarit or Jalisco, Mexico, Myanmar (Burma), Western Australia, Costa Rica, Alabama, South of Africa

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes in the South Sandwich Islands, Tonga, Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge, Balleny Islands, Komandorskiye Ostrova, Russia, Kermadec Islands, Solomon Islands, and New Britain Region, PNG yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon (including offshore), Northern California, Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Central California

- Secondary vector: Idaho, Washington, Utah, Nevada, Wyoming, Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma

- Also possible: Costa Rica, Myanmar, Sikkim (India), Pakistan, Taiwan, Mongolia, Colombia, Ecuador, Iran, Turkey, or a large quake near the Banda Sea

NERVSupdate Twitter feed accuracy report

----------------------------------------------------------

The NERVSupdate Twitter feed was added in 2011 to provide more rapid but less rigorous notification of possible NERVS pattern development. For those interested, the table below shows its accuracy. Date range is October 21, 2011 through July 4, 2014, with the most recent tweet sent on June 23, 2014.

Interpretation of Results

--------------------------------

As might be expected from a less-rigorous analysis prior to notification, the 94% Overall Exact or Close Date Accuracy appears to confirm the efficacy of NERVS pattern development from a time perspective (within 15 days), but less so for location plotting. In other words, general NERVS patterns tend to produce more easily observable and consistent time frames, but specific precursor events need further review to determine likely event locations.

Accuracy Assessment Details

----------------------------------------

- The NERVS experiment protocol is, strictly, California quakes of 4.5 or greater magnitude within 10 days of a NERVS update. More loosely, it covers events within the same time period and magnitude range, but encompasses a larger geographic region: Haida Gwaii (Canada) to the North, Nayarit or Jalisco, Mexico to the South (this southern range is still being debated), and extending into the Western US states: OR, WA, ID, NV, UT, AZ, NM, CO, WY and MT. (Oklahoma is a region of interest, but is currently outside the expanded geographic range.) Tweets were tallied with the following considerations:

- "Resolved Tweets" means that after a tweet was made, a subsequent corresponding event occurred.

- "In-Protocol Resolved Tweets" means that the tweet was within the bounds of the NERVS experiment protocol. Occasionally, I use the Twitter feed to make additional observations of seismic events.

- "Date Accuracy: Yes" means that a qualifying event occurred within the 10-day time period.

- "Date Accuracy: Close" means that a qualifying event occurred between 10 and 15 days from the tweet.

- "Date Accuracy: No" means that a qualifying event occurred more than 15 days from the tweet. Average time for next event to occur: 19.5 days.

- "Date and California Accuracy: Yes" means that a qualifying event occurred within the 10-day time period in California.

- "Date Accuracy: Close & California Accuracy: Yes" means that a qualifying event occurred between 10 and 15 days in California from the tweet.

Follow-up

-------------

I'm planning on occasionally providing updates to this Twitter accuracy report. If you're interested in reviewing the full report, please send me a message.

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes in the Aegean Sea, Oaxaca, Mexico, Sunda Strait, Western Turkey, Taiwan, Burma (Myanmar), Macquarie Island, Mindanao, Mid-Indian Ridge, Pacific-Antarctic Ridge, Southern Iran, Mona Passage (Dominican Republic), and Komandorskiye Ostrova, Russia all are at relatively low magnitudes but show a clear NERVS pattern, thus yielding the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon (including offshore), Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and offshore)

- Secondary vector: Washington, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho

- Also possible: Western Canada, Peru, Oklahoma


-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: Latest analysis shows more than 90% accuracy rate for West Coast (US) quakes within 15 days.
To subscribe, please follow: NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes in the Svalbard area, Maule, Chile, Burma (Myanmar), the Balleny Islands region, a 6.6 in Taiwan and a 7.3 in Honshu, Japan on Oct 25 yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon (including offshore), Northern California, Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Central California
- Secondary vector: Washington, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming

- Also possible: Alaska, Western Canada, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Italy, India-Pakistan border region, Mongolia


-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed
To subscribe, please follow: NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----

Nate Myers

nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All, 

A recent NERVS pattern in mid-August yielded quakes in Central California and Nevada that were not preceded by an update, but which were preceded by the less formal (but still mostly accurate) NERVS Twitter feed. 

However, a pattern still appears to be developing. Therefore, quakes in the Andreanof Islands, Haida Gwaii Region (Canada), the Southwest Indian Ridge, Southern Iran, Southern Italy, the South Sandwich Islands Region, and North of Svalbard yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon (including offshore), Central California, Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Northern California (including offshore)
- Secondary vector: Oklahoma, Washington, Utah, Wyoming

- Also possible: Myanmar, Taiwan, Ukraine, New Zealand


-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed
To subscribe, please follow: NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----

Nate Myers

nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.