NERVS update

Hi All,

Since the last NERVS update, three additional patterns have developed, all of which resulted in California quakes, and all of which I missed based on my schedule. With our recent remodeling work (mostly) out of the way, I'm able to respond to this developing pattern. Quakes in Myanmar, Iran, Japan, west of Macquarie Island and a 6.9 in PNG yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California),
- Secondary vector: Taiwan, China, Peru, Vancouver Island
- Also possible: Western or Central Australia, British Columbia

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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

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Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update ***updated***

Hi All, 

The most recent NERVS update was partially accurate, with quakes occurring in the secondary vector within the time and magnitude range (including Taiwan, Myanmar and Alaska), and a large quake (7.3 in Papua, New Guinea) occurring within ten days of the most recent Sunda Strait quake. A 5.1 quake occurred along the West Coast (Vancouver Island), but that quake was not part of the last NERVS update (it also was not reported through the USGS email notification but was indicated on their quake monitoring website). 

The lack of a California quake within 10 days of the Sunda Strait quake is noteworthy, especially since a large quantity of other NERVS indicators have been activated since July 9th, including relatively rare activity somewhat near, but not on, Bouvet Island (a precursor to some large Bay Area quakes in the past). Of interest as well is the series of three magnitude 7.0+ quakes off Mindanao, Philippines that occurred on Friday, July 23 (PDT) in rapid succession.

Overall, quake activity has seen a marked increase in frequency and intensity since the most recent Sunda Strait quake, and it seems that that quake is the most appropriate marker for a NERVS pattern. So I'm going to take the unusual step of modifying and extending the last NERVS update--essentially undoing the expiration date and resetting it for an additional length of time--rather than issue a new update. Simultaneously, based on historical data, I'm going to suggest a watch period that will extend beyond the standard update and cover a longer range between the Sunda Strait quake and the next California quake. Therefore, the latest modified NERVS update is as follows:

5.0 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:

- Primary vector: Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California), Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Utah

- Secondary vector: Kazakhstan, Kamchatka Peninsula, Caspian Sea, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Peru, Vancouver Island

- Also possible: Western or Central Australia, Japan (potentially large), Azores, British Columbia

- Watch period: Central Coast quake (Sonoma - San Simeon) within next 30 days

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:

Numerical (or "non-scientific")

Earthquake

Risk

Vector

System

...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

NERVS update

Hi All, 

The last NERVS update was accurate, with a 5.4 quake occurring in Southern California within the date and magnitude range.

Earlier today, a 5.2 quake occurred in the Sunda Strait, which many of you know is of special interest, since quakes there tend to be followed by a large quake (7.0 or greater) within a short period of time (typically 10 days or fewer). Sunda Strait quakes are also almost always followed by a 4.5 or greater California quake as well. So that quake, along with quakes in Albania, Chile and the Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:

- Primary vector: Oregon, Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California), Utah 

- Secondary vector: Taiwan, Mongolia, Myanmar, Alaska

- Also possible: Lake Tanganyika Region (Africa), Norway/Sweden

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:

Numerical (or "non-scientific")

Earthquake

Risk

Vector

System

...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

NERVS update

Hi All, 

The last NERVS update was accurate, with several quakes occurring within the time and magnitude range in southern and Baja California from June 14 - 17. Another pattern developed shortly after, but I was unable to respond in time, and thus missed a 4.5 quake in Baja on June 25. That quake was preceded by a 4.9 in Oaxaca, Mexico.

A new NERVS pattern appears to be developing, including a 6.5 quake in Oaxaca that was reported by CNN this morning. That quake, along with quakes in New Ireland (PNG), Vanuatu, Tonga, Hindu Kush (Afghanistan), Chile, Peru, Taiwan and China yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:

- Primary vector: Oregon, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California), Northern California, Central California

- Secondary vector: Greece, Iran, Turkey, Chile

- Also possible: Alaska, Washington, Vancouver Island

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:

Numerical (or "non-scientific")

Earthquake

Risk

Vector

System

...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes in PNG, Vanuatu, the Kermadec Islands and Japan, along with recent activity in Pakistan, Mexico, Shanxi (China) and near the coast of South Australia are consistent with a NERVS pattern. The magnitudes are relatively low, suggesting that a related California quake may occur under the NERVS threshold of 4.0. However, a larger quake is possible, thus yielding the following NERVS update:

4.0 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:

- Primary vector: Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California), Northern California, Central California (near Paso Robles)

- Secondary vector: Greece, Iran, Taiwan, Myanmar, Chile, Peru, Turkey

- Also possible: Alaska, Washington, Oregon, Vancouver Island

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:

Numerical (or "non-scientific")

Earthquake

Risk

Vector

System

...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

NERVS update ***updated***

Hi All,

As I was sending the last NERVS update, I received a USGS email reporting a 5.1 Southern California quake occurring minutes after the Sunda Strait quake. While this may resolve the most recent NERVS risk vector, based on prior activity I'll suggest that the latest NERVS update remain active for the standard 10-day time period:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California), Northern California, Central California
- Secondary vector: Taiwan, Chile, Kamchatka Peninsula, Tonga, Peru, Japan
- Also possible: Pakistan, Russia, China

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes in the Sunda Strait are typically not good news. Since I started tracking events for NERVS, Sunda Strait quakes have not failed to produce quakes in California (including Baja) within 15 days, and usually within 10 days. While not always large in California, quakes in the Sunda Strait also tend to precede 6.8 or greater quakes somewhere around the globe. In fact, the 6.9 quake in Baja, California on April 4, 2010 was preceded by a 4.8 Sunda Strait quake on March 24.

Thus, a recent uptick of quakes in Iran, Japan and the Greenland Sea,  along with a 5.2 quake in the Sunda Strait earlier today, yields the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:

- Primary vector: Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California), Northern California, Central California

- Secondary vector: Taiwan, Chile, Kamchatka Peninsula, Tonga, Peru, Japan

- Also possible: Pakistan, Russia, China

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:

Numerical (or "non-scientific")

Earthquake

Risk

Vector

System

...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 

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The last NERVS update on May 1, 2010 was accurate, with a 4.6 quake occurring in Baja on May 4, and a 5.0 occurring in Southern California on May 8.

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Obtaining Drinking Water from your Water Heater 

Damaged or broken supply pipes, compromised treatment facilities or loss of pressure could make obtaining clean water a top priority after a major quake. Don't forget about your water heater—it's a great resource for gallons of usable water. Keeping the water inside is one reason to brace it. 

A spigot or other outflow device should be present on the bottom of your gas or electric water heater.  Examine the top as well—you may have faucet handles or other shut-off valves to limit inflow of contaminated water. Remember that multiple strong aftershocks can continue after the initial quake, so make sure the gas is off before spending much time in front of your water heater, and avoid any ignition source until you're sure residual gas has had time to clear. More: http://www.earthquakecountry.info/daretoprepare/stuff/waterheater.html

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Your fault? 

If buying a home in the Bay Area, you may also be buying increased risk. Your disclosure packet should contain an assessment of earthquake risk based on your home's proximity to known faults. The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) uses the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale to rate estimated quake damage. See a description here: http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/doc/mmi.html

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What California emergency services are available before and after a large event? See the California Emergency Management Agency's plan. http://www.oes.ca.gov/WebPage/oeswebsite.nsf/Content/A1F2F25F0947AF848825741F006015EF?OpenDocument

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An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes

And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html

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If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 

When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/simulations/hayward/

Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

http://deimos3.apple.com/WebObjects/Core.woa/Browse/berkeley.edu.1177911588

For preparedness and response information, see:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/preparedness.php

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:

http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/eqfloods/floods.html

Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/seishaz/prepare/office.php

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos in this simulation:

Archived Test Videos

http://nees.buffalo.edu/projects/NEESWood/video.asp

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&gl=us&ptab=2&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=114896433391258936310.00043ec877e3a5d8328f8

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate