NERVS update

Hi All, 

I hope you're well :) It has been a while since the last NERVS update through email.

Most recent NERVS pattern activity has been communicated through the NERVSupdate Twitter feed, with accurate precursors to the 5.x off the coast of Northern California 25 Jan 2018, and the 4.9 event off the coast of Oregon 28 Jan 2018. Though outside the NERVS protocol, a 3.7 event in Oklahoma yesterday is also notable.

Those events may have resolved recent precursor activity. However, the occurrence of ≥m7 events (7.6 in Honduras 9 Jan 2018, 7.3 near the coast of southern Peru 14 Jan 2018, and the 7.9 Gulf of Alaska quake 23 Jan 2018), along with ≥m6 events in Hindu Kush region, Fiji region, Pacific-Antarctic Ridge, and Taiwan yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Offshore Northern California, Northern California, Southern California (including offshore), Central California (including offshore), Oregon (including offshore)

- Secondary vector: Nevada, Baja California, Gulf of California, Utah, Idaho, Arizona, Oklahoma

- Also possible: Vancouver Island (Canada), Washington, Wyoming


An additional note: While outside the NERVS protocol, the activity off the coast of Honduras makes events in the Southern U.S. particularly interesting. As an adjunct to the main NERVS experiment, I'll be keeping an eye on any events that occur in Arkansas, Missouri, the Memphis metro area, northern Texas, or central Oklahoma, especially around Lake Texoma.



-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Activity within the NERVS experiment area, especially California, has continued to be light and at low magnitudes, and as a result, most pattern identification has been communicated through the NERVSupdate Twitter feed. However, a rapid uptick in precursor activity along with a notable rise in magnitude, including events in Myanmar, Lac Kivu region (Congo), Xinjiang (China), Iran, Honshu (Japan), Taiwan, Vanuatu, and the 7.1 event in Puebla, Mexico, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Central California (including offshore), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including offshore), Oregon (including offshore)

- Secondary vector: Baja California (including offshore), New Mexico, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Oklahoma (if so, 5.0+)
- Also possible: Vancouver Island (Canada), Washington



-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Most NERVS pattern identification has been happening in the NERVSupdate Twitter feed, so a formal email hasn't been released for several months. However, the late December 7.7 event near Los Lagos, Chile and 6.2 event in Sumbawa Region, Indonesia, along with today's 5.1 event in Burma and 7.2 quake South of the Fiji Islands, yields the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Southern California (including offshore), Oregon (including offshore), Northern California (including offshore), Central California

- Secondary vector: Baja California (including offshore), New Mexico
- Also possible: Alaska, Nevada



-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Events off the East Coast of the North Island, N.Z., Gulf of Alaska, Taiwan, Southwest of Africa, and Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon (including offshore), Northern California (including offshore), Nevada, Southern California (including offshore), Central California, Baja California (including offshore), Utah, Arizona
- Secondary vector: Vancouver Island, Montana, Wyoming
- Also possible: M7 or greater worldwide (based on activity Southwest of Africa)



-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Events in the Strait of Gibraltar, Burma, and Alaska, along with a 5.8 quake earlier today Southwest of Africa yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California, Offshore Northern California, Offshore Southern California, Southern California, Greater Los Angeles Area, Central California, Baja California (including offshore), Nevada, Utah, Wyoming

- Secondary vector: Oregon (including offshore), Montana, Arizona, Nevada

- Also possible: M7 or greater worldwide (see table below)

While outside the NERVS protocol, long-time subscribers know that certain phenomena are sometimes highlighted as circumstances warrant. This includes the possible existence of locations that tend to serve as precursors to large quakes (e.g. Sunda Strait) when events there are of sufficient magnitude (4.5+). The Flinn-Engdahl Region designated "Southwest of Africa" is not only a precursor for California quakes, but also may be a large event precursor. Notice the approximate chronological relationship between all events 4.5m or greater Southwest of Africa since 2007, and magnitude 7+ events within the subsequent 20 days (with the one m6.6 Kamchatka exception that was eclipsed 5 days later by a 7.8 in Scotia Sea):

While there does not appear to be a clear relationship between the precursor event magnitude and its subsequent large event, it is noteworthy that today's event represents the largest magnitude event in the series.

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Events in Eastern Xizang, Xinjiang, a 6.7 quake in Hokkaido, Japan and a 5.4 event in the Macquarie Island Region yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Central California, Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Nevada, Utah 

- Secondary vector: Oregon (including offshore), Montana, Wyoming, Arizona

- Also possible: Myanmar

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

A general NERVS pattern over the last 10-14 days, including quakes in the Svalbard Region, Burma-India Border Region, Greece, and a 6.8 event in the Solomon Islands earlier today yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Nevada, Central California, Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Utah 

- Secondary vector: Vancouver Island, Oregon (including offshore), Montana, Wyoming, Arizona

- Also possible: Iran, Bering Strait

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235