Hi All,
The last NERVS update on 21 September 2015 was accurate for California and Nevada, with events in the Gulf of California and Nevada occurring at or near the threshold magnitude and within the specified time frame.
However, a possible event in the Sunda Strait was mentioned as a tertiary possibility, and an event did occur there on 4 October 2015 at the appropriate magnitude, but three days past the specified time frame (which started 21 September and ended 1 October). Long-time subscribers to this list are aware of an adjunct hypothesis which suggests that events in certain locations, including Sunda Strait, often precede events at or greater than 7.0 magnitude.
While no large event followed that quake within 10 days, a second event in the Sunda Strait on 14 October preceded a 7.3 event in Vanuatu on 20 October. Large events in Vanuatu, in turn, appear frequently in NERVS patterns for California. It is of interest that a swarm of quakes has occurred near Santa Rosa over the last several days, but since none of those events has surpassed the minimum 4.0 magnitude needed for this experiment, they are not included as potential evidence of a NERVS pattern. So while that swarm may have resolved the most recent NERVS pattern, this experiment suggests that the 7.3 event in Vanuatu, along with recent quakes in Scotia Sea, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, New Ireland Region (PNG), Tajikistan, Western Iran, Burma, Taiwan, and Hindu Kush Region (Afghanistan) should nonetheless yield the following NERVS update:
4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Central California, Oregon (including offshore), Idaho, Utah
- Secondary vector: Vancouver Island, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Montana, Wyoming, Revilla Gigedo Islands Region
- Also possible: Iceland, Caspian Sea
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
