NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update was accurate, with a quake occurring in Baja California within the specified time period and magnitude (a 5.0 on Feb 20).

Quakes in the last few days in Japan, Tonga, Chile, Crete and Afghanistan (Hindu Kush region) yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Washington, Vancouver Island, Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California)
- Secondary vector: Nevada, Utah, Wyoming
- Also possible: Myanmar, China, Taiwan, Siberia

Though not part of the NERVS experiment, an increase of activity in Arkansas is also of interest. Subsequent potential quakes in Portugal, the Caribbean, the Middle East, central Europe or the United Kingdom will be particularly noteworthy.

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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All,

The last NERVS update was accurate, though barely, with a quake occurring a couple hundred miles south of the Baja California tip (Revilla Gigedo Islands) within the specified time period and magnitude. Interestingly, there were also a small series of Bay Area quakes within the right time frame but just slightly under the specified magnitude.

A more recent 4.5 quake occurred in Oregon that followed quakes in the right locations but at low magnitudes, which led me to conclude that a West Coast quake of sufficient magnitude would not occur. Thus, the lack of an update was a miss, but the NERVS pattern holds.

Quakes in the last few days in Myanmar, Taiwan, the Aleutian Islands and the recent 7.0 Chilean quake on Feb 11 yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California, Central California, Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California), Oregon, Washington
- Secondary vector: Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Mexico, Iran, Afghanistan, Northern Italy
- Also possible: British Columbia, Vancouver Island, Chile

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----
Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.