The 6.9 quake in Baja, California came three days after the last NERVS update expired, but in the most likely location. So while not totally accurate, the last update was close for a California quake, and accurate for several other quakes listed.
That same quake produced a large amount of information—so much so that the USGS earthquake notification service via email seemed to lag during subsequent events. I sent a message to a USGS email administrator regarding the unusually slow performance. The administrator wrote back to say that they'll be making improvements that should prevent similar system degradation in the future.
Since the NERVS update relies on USGS emails, it is unclear at this time whether a pattern is still developing or has already resulted in a southern California quake that isn't an aftershock from the 6.9 Baja quake, but that represents an independent quake based on a known NERVS pattern. Given that ambiguity, there are nonetheless enough recent quakes to suggest a new pattern. Therefore, quakes in the Sunda Strait, Ryukyu Islands, Tonga, China, Fiji, Kyrgyzstan, Hindu Kush region, Taiwan, Solomon Islands and northern Peru yield the following NERVS update:
4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Southern California, Central California, Northern California, Nevada, Utah
- Secondary vector: Azerbaijan, Lake Baykal (Russia), Kamchatka Peninsula
- Also possible: Based on a 6.2 quake in Spain (and assuming a separate non-California NERVS pattern), watch for a possible quake in Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas or anywhere along the Ohio River valley
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
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Obtaining Drinking Water from your Water Heater
Damaged or broken supply pipes, compromised treatment facilities or loss of pressure could make obtaining clean water a top priority after a major quake. Don't forget about your water heater—it's a great resource for gallons of usable water. Keeping the water inside is one reason to brace it.
A spigot or other outflow device should be present on the bottom of your gas or electric water heater. Examine the top as well—you may have faucet handles or other shut-off valves to limit inflow of contaminated water. Remember that multiple strong aftershocks can continue after the initial quake, so make sure the gas is off before spending much time in front of your water heater, and avoid any ignition source until you're sure residual gas has had time to clear. More: http://www.earthquakecountry.info/daretoprepare/stuff/waterheater.html
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Your fault?
If buying a home in the Bay Area, you may also be buying increased risk. Your disclosure packet should contain an assessment of earthquake risk based on your home's proximity to known faults. The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) uses the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale to rate estimated quake damage. See a description here: http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/doc/mmi.html
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What California emergency services are available before and after a large event? See the California Emergency Management Agency's plan. http://www.oes.ca.gov/WebPage/oeswebsite.nsf/Content/A1F2F25F0947AF848825741F006015EF?OpenDocument
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An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes
And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html
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If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults.
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.
Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:
For preparedness and response information, see:
Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.
What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:
What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos in this simulation:
Archived Test Videos
When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates:
Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:
http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&gl=us&ptab=2&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=114896433391258936310.00043ec877e3a5d8328f8
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
