The last update was inaccurate for the primary vector, but close, with a 3.7 quake occurring near Soledad during the right time and place but at the wrong magnitude, and several California quakes within the right magnitude, but five days after the last update's expiration. Quakes in the secondary vector were accurate.
Three quakes occurred over the weekend near the Sunda Strait, and since those events, several large quakes have occurred, including a 7.0 quake near Eastern New Guinea, a 6.7 quake near Valparaiso, Chile, and a 5.6 quake in the Kermadec Islands. Typically I'd wait for one or two more indicators (activity near Iceland, Alaska, Myanmar or parts of the Philippines). However, at this point there appears to be enough pattern formation to yield the following NERVS update:
4.5 or greater magnitude in next 15 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Central California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore)
- Secondary vector: Oregon, Nevada, Washington, Utah, Wyoming, India-Nepal border region
- Also possible: Alaska, Svalbard Island region, Myanmar, Mindoro or Mindanao (Philippines), Taiwan
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
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Nate
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Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.
