NERVS update

Hi All, 

A general NERVS pattern over the last 10-14 days, including quakes in the Svalbard Region, Burma-India Border Region, Greece, and a 6.8 event in the Solomon Islands earlier today yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Nevada, Central California, Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Utah 

- Secondary vector: Vancouver Island, Oregon (including offshore), Montana, Wyoming, Arizona

- Also possible: Iran, Bering Strait

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

The last NERVS update on 21 September 2015 was accurate for California and Nevada, with events in the Gulf of California and Nevada occurring at or near the threshold magnitude and within the specified time frame.

However, a possible event in the Sunda Strait was mentioned as a tertiary possibility, and an event did occur there on 4 October 2015 at the appropriate magnitude, but three days past the specified time frame (which started 21 September and ended 1 October). Long-time subscribers to this list are aware of an adjunct hypothesis which suggests that events in certain locations, including Sunda Strait, often precede events at or greater than 7.0 magnitude.

While no large event followed that quake within 10 days, a second event in the Sunda Strait on 14 October preceded a 7.3 event in Vanuatu on 20 October. Large events in Vanuatu, in turn, appear frequently in NERVS patterns for California. It is of interest that a swarm of quakes has occurred near Santa Rosa over the last several days, but since none of those events has surpassed the minimum 4.0 magnitude needed for this experiment, they are not included as potential evidence of a NERVS pattern. So while that swarm may have resolved the most recent NERVS pattern, this experiment suggests that the 7.3 event in Vanuatu, along with recent quakes in Scotia Sea, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, New Ireland Region (PNG), Tajikistan, Western Iran, Burma, Taiwan, and Hindu Kush Region (Afghanistan) should nonetheless yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:

- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Central California, Oregon (including offshore), Idaho, Utah

- Secondary vector: Vancouver Island, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Montana, Wyoming, Revilla Gigedo Islands Region

- Also possible: Iceland, Caspian Sea

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Two West Coast events occurred within the last few weeks that fit the NERVS experiment protocol and that followed a known precursor pattern: a 4.5 event in Nevada and a 6.6 event in the Gulf of California. In both cases the pattern was evident, but no update was issued based on my schedule.

The 8.3 event in Chile that occurred on 16 September 2015 is outside of the main NERVS event target area, but long-time subscribers are aware that I'm also exploring the possibility of quakes in certain locations preceding large events by a few days, and that is what occurred in the Chile case. Specifically, the quake listed here , which occurred five days prior to the Chile event, suggested the strong possibility of a major event:

2015-09-11 20:10:53 (M4.7) SOUTH OF AFRICA -52.6 27.9 (1c243)

Another possible Flinn-Engdahl region that frequently appears to act as a precursor to major quakes is West of Macquarie Island. Two quakes in that region earlier today, a 5.0 event and a 4.6 event, along with quakes in New Britain (PNG), Central Alaska, Mindanao, Burma-India Border Region, Hokkaido, Kepulauan Mentawai Region (Indonesia), Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge, North Island of New Zealand, Chiapas, Mexico, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Near the East Coast of Kamchatka, Russia, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Central California (including the Santa Barbara Channel), Northern California (including offshore), Oregon (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Nevada

- Secondary vector: Revilla Gigedo Islands Region, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, Montana, Wyoming

- Also possible: Iran, Iceland, Sunda Strait

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

A general NERVS pattern is developing, and though many events are not of a significant magnitude,  a 5.0 quake in Hawaii, a 5.7 quake in the Macquarie Island Region, a 6.4 quake in Southern Xinjiang, China, and a 6.0 in Leyte, Philippines (along with a seemingly unresolved 7.0 event in the Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge on June 17) yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon (including offshore), Central California (including the Santa Barbara Channel), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Nevada

- Secondary vector: Nayarit or Jalisco (Mexico), Utah, Nevada, Montana, Wyoming, Washington, Arizona

- Also possible: Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Western Iran

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

-----

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Thanks to everyone who commented on the accuracy of the last NERVS update (a Nevada quake within the time and magnitude). Since then, one (or possibly more) California quakes occurred that resulted from a known pattern but that happened too fast for me to catch. However, since those possible or confirmed California events, additional pattern activity has occurred that may signal possible future California or West Coast quakes, including a 7.8 in the Bonin Islands, Japan Region, quakes in Hindu Kush, Afghanistan and Tajikistan, Tonga, Southern Sumatra, Southern Qinghai, China, and Djibouti. This activity, along with the 7.0 event on the Alaska Peninsula on 29 May, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Nevada, Arizona, Central California, Oregon (including offshore), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja, offshore, and Greater Los Angeles Area), Utah 

- Secondary vector: Montana, Wyoming, New Mexico

- Also possible: Burma (Myanmar), Vancouver Island, Sichuan (China), Croatia


Additionally, though not directly part of the NERVS experiment, I've previously suggested that the empirically observed odd cessation of aftershock or "normal" activity after a large event (such as yesterday's 7.8 Bonin Islands quake) may precede another large event. While too early to tell, the lack of activity in the last 10-12 hours is worth further observation over the next 24-48 hours.

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes near the East Coast of Honshu, Southern Xinjiang (China), Ecuador, Hindu Kush Region (Afghanistan), Taiwan, and the Mid-Indian Ridge yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Nevada, Oregon (including offshore), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore), Central California

- Secondary vector: Utah, Montana, Wyoming, Washington, Arizona, New Mexico

- Also possible: Burma (Myanmar), Vancouver Island, Iran

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed: To subscribe, please follow NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate