NERVS update

Hi All, 

The last NERVS update, which expired August 23, was accurate for the secondary vector, with a 5.6 quake occurring off the coast of Washington on August 19. Other smaller but qualifying quakes within the secondary and tertiary vectors also occurred.

On August 24, a 5.0 quake occurred near the Balleny Islands region. Activity in this region, like the Sunda Strait, frequently precedes a large event. 

Today (three days after the last update's expiration) a swarm of earthquakes began occurring in Southern California in the Imperial Valley near the Salton Sea. Within the last 90 minutes, a 7.4 quake was reported off the west coast of Central America near Nicaragua and El Salvador. Significant quakes in this region tend to precede California quakes.

Before I could finish this latest update, a 5.2 occurred in the Gulf of California, and the quake swarm in Southern California is expected to continue, so the most recent pattern could be resolved. However, quakes in the Moluccas, Pacific-Antarctic Ridge, Antofagasta (Chile), and Reykjanes Ridge suggest that a NERVS pattern is still in the process of forming, which could impact Central or Northern California. Thus, these quakes, in combination with the 7.4 off Central America, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Central California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore) - separate from the current swarm
- Secondary vector: Oregon, Nevada, Washington, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, Western Canada (including Vancouver Island); or a large quake in Alaska
- Also possible: Myanmar, Xinjiang region (China), Pakistan, Georgia (near Tbilisi), Tajikistan

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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.



Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

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Nate Myers

nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.

NERVS update

Hi All, 

The last NERVS update (July 14) was accurate, but since its expiration, additional California and West Coast quakes have occurred. Those subscribed to the @NERVSupdate Twitter feed received accurate preliminary notice (July 29 and Aug 9), but no formal email update was made.

An unusually active series of quakes for California and the West Coast started August 6. A 4.6 in Central California was followed on August 8 by a 4.5 in the Greater Los Angeles Area, a 4.9 off the Coast of Oregon and a 5.6 in the Revilla Gigedo Islands region, all of which followed the pattern that prompted the July 29 Twitter notice.

The August 9 Twitter update referenced this unusual pattern of activity, and was also prompted by quakes in several known precursor areas: Mid-Atlantic Ridge, Kuril Islands, Western Xizang, South Sandwich Islands and Southern Alaska.

Since that time, a NERVS pattern has developed, with quakes occurring in the Fox/Aleutian Islands, Northwestern Iran and the Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge. A pattern rapidly emerged Monday evening that included quakes inTaiwan, Peru, Pakistan, and Hindu Kush, Afghanistan. Additionally a 7.7 quake occurred in the Sea of Okhotsk. Quakes in this region frequently, but don't always, precede California quakes that fit the NERVS profile.

Before this latest NERVS update could be released, the USGS released but then deleted several quake reports for the San Martin/Monterey Bay area, so it's not clear if a qualifying California quake has occurred already. Even so, the clear pattern development, the 7.7 in the Sea of Okhotsk, and the previously mentioned unusual activity yields the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Central California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore)
- Secondary vector: Oregon, Nevada, Washington, Utah, Wyoming
- Also possible: Chile, Nicaragua, off the coast of Ecuador, Western Canada, New Zealand, Western Australia


-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


Twitter Feed
To subscribe, please follow: NERVSupdate


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

----

Nate Myers

nmyers@apple.com    408-974-9207    Apple Inc.