The last NERVS update was technically inaccurate for California, but close, with a 5.2 quake occurring in Baja, California on December 4th, two days after the last update time frame. Non-primary vectors were accurate.
Continued activity in Guerrero (Mexico), the Andreanof Islands, Chile, Iran, Hindu Kush, Honshu, the South Sandwich Islands, as well as a 7.3 quake in the Eastern New Guinea region yield the following NERVS update:
4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Central California (including offshore), Southern California, Northern California (including offshore), Idaho
- Secondary vector: Oregon, Nevada, Washington, Utah, western Canada
- Also possible: Myanmar, Taiwan, New Zealand, China, Pakistan, Kamchatka Peninsula, Mozambique
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
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Nate
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Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.
