Latest NERVS update is enclosed. Sent yesterday, but may not have reached everyone on the list.
Thanks,
Nate
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Begin forwarded message:
From: Nate Myers <nmyers@apple.com>
Date: December 22, 2008 2:24:50 PM PST
To: Nate Myers <nmyers@apple.com>
Subject: NERVS update
Hi All,
Geographic coordinates: 35.235N, 81.409E
Magnitude: 4.9 Mb
A low-magnitude NERVS pattern developed quickly over the last couple of days, and a 4.1 quake on Sunday night at the Pinnacles may have been the expected response. However, additional pattern quakes are continuing, including a 4.5 in Southern Iran, a 4.7 in Myanmar and 5.0 in Tonga, which yields the following NERVS update:
4.0 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Alaska, Oregon, Southern California (including offshore, Baja and Gulf of California), Northern California (including offshore), Central California
- Secondary vector: Washington, Nevada, Utah, Vancouver Island, Taiwan, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Siberia
- Also possible: Wyoming, Montana, Sicily
***NEW***
If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults.
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.
Also…
Is unusual seismic activity responsible for undersea cables snapping in the Mediterranean? BBC reports:
18:52 GMT, Friday, 19 December 2008—Internet and phone communications between Europe, the Middle East, and Asia have been seriously disrupted after submarine cables were severed…the cause of the break is as yet unknown, although some seismic activity was reported near Malta shortly before the cut was detected…"We've lost three out of four lines. If the fourth cable breaks, we're looking at a total blackout in the Middle East," said Mr Wright…"Normally you would expect to see one major break per cable per year…For this to happen twice in one year, on the same cable, is a serious cause for concern."
NERVS Accuracy Check
Last Update
December 9, 2008 12:46:40 PM PST
4.5 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Northern California (incl. offshore), Southern California (incl.offshore), Central California, Turkey
- Secondary vector: Washington, Nevada, Utah, Vancouver Island, Taiwan, Chile, Peru, China, Greece
- Also possible: Wyoming, Montana, Myanmar, Lake Tanganyika, eastern Africa, England
- Based on the most recent 7.0, another large quake could occur anywhere, but potentially in Iran, Alaska or Japan
Not validated by any California quakes at or above the specified magnitude…
But validated overall by several quakes:
Region: XINJIANG-XIZANG BORDER REGIONGeographic coordinates: 35.235N, 81.409E
Magnitude: 4.9 Mb
Universal Time (UTC): 11 Dec 2008 12:31:05
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Region: SOUTHERN GREECE
Geographic coordinates: 37.360N, 21.034E
Magnitude: 4.5 Mb
Geographic coordinates: 37.360N, 21.034E
Magnitude: 4.5 Mb
Universal Time (UTC): 13 Dec 2008 08:27:20
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Region: LAKE TANGANYIKA REGION
Geographic coordinates: 7.457S, 30.151E
Magnitude: 5.1 Mb
Universal Time (UTC): 14 Dec 2008 09:43:10
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Geographic coordinates: 7.457S, 30.151E
Magnitude: 5.1 Mb
Universal Time (UTC): 14 Dec 2008 09:43:10
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Region: OFFSHORE COQUIMBO, CHILE
Geographic coordinates: 29.769S, 71.368W
Magnitude: 4.9 Mb
Universal Time (UTC): 16 Dec 2008 22:05:26
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Geographic coordinates: 29.769S, 71.368W
Magnitude: 4.9 Mb
Universal Time (UTC): 16 Dec 2008 22:05:26
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Region: OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
Geographic coordinates: 32.416S, 71.532W
Magnitude: 6.3 Mw
Universal Time (UTC): 18 Dec 2008 21:19:31
Geographic coordinates: 32.416S, 71.532W
Magnitude: 6.3 Mw
Universal Time (UTC): 18 Dec 2008 21:19:31
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Region: OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Geographic coordinates: 36.603N, 142.356E
Magnitude: 6.5 Mw
Universal Time (UTC): 20 Dec 2008 10:29:22
Geographic coordinates: 36.603N, 142.356E
Magnitude: 6.5 Mw
Universal Time (UTC): 20 Dec 2008 10:29:22
(At magnitude 6.5, this is not technically "another large quake" like a 7.0, and it is at the outer edge of the last NERVS update time envelope. However with the relatively low general magnitudes of late, and the press coverage given by the world media, I'm including this for consideration as validation at this time.)
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:
For preparedness and response information, see:
Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.
What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:
What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:
Archived Test Videos
When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates:
Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
