NERVS update

Hi All,

Though outside the normal NERVS experiment protocol, the last NERVS
update was accurate, with two 7.0+ quakes occurring after the most
recent Macquarie Island quake: a 7.6 in the Kermadec Islands, and the
deadly 7.3 quake in Turkey last week.

Thanks to those who are now following the NERVSupdate Twitter feed.
The rapid response format allowed an accurate pattern recognition on
October 24, prior to the latest 4.8 Northern California quake on
October 26, as well as prior identification of heightened activity in
the Aleutian Islands.

Along with the Fox/Aleutian Island activity, quakes in Hindu Kush,
Xinjiang (China), Taiwan, Peru, Iran and a 4.7 in the Sunda Strait on
October 29, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 15 days:
- Primary vector: Utah, Nevada, Wyoming, Southern California
(including Baja), Central California (including offshore), Northern
California (including offshore)
- Secondary vector: Washington, Oregon, western Canada
- Also possible: Eastern Russia, Bhutan, Myanmar, Italy; plus a 7.0+
quake based on Sunda Strait activity

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar
patterns of quakes in other areas.

Twitter Feed
To subscribe, please follow: NERVSupdate

Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email
to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this
list.

Nate

NERVS update & Twitter feed

Hi All, 

Thanks to those who informed me of the dual 4.1 California quakes that occurred earlier today near Berkeley, CA. For more information, please see below.

The last NERVS update was somewhat accurate, in that I sent it out shortly after a 4.0 quake occurred in Southern California (which I was not aware of at the time since I typically don't track quakes of less than 4.5 magnitude). Of special note, however, was the 6.8 quake that occurred in Sikkim, India. As a possible risk vector, I had indicated Bhutan, the border of which was less than 100 miles away from the epicenter.

Regarding today's two Bay Area quakes, the latest NERVS pattern was evident yesterday morning, and was reinforced today by a 5.1 quake West of Macquarie Island. In the enclosed chart, please notice that almost every quake in that region has preceded a West Coast quake within 10 days (as indicated by the flag icon). In the three quakes that don't have a flag, the quake on Jan 12, 2011 occurred shortly after a California quake (which is accounted for in the NERVS hypothesis), while those on May 9 and August 14 produced unusual quake activity in Spain and Colorado, respectively. Of potential interest as well, which may be followed up on later, is a 4.6 quake that occurred earlier today in Texas.

I should note that as an empirical observation only, quakes near Macquarie Island, like those in the Sunda Strait, seem to occasionally precede significant quakes (7.0+) by a few days. That two smaller Bay Area quakes should occur so soon after the latest Macquarie Island quake suggests that additional preparation and vigilance may be prudent for Bay Area residents over the next 10 days. This observation, while outside the core NERVS hypothesis, forms the most recent NERVS update.

***Introducing the NERVS update Twitter feed***

In keeping with this experiment, I try to send NERVS updates as patterns become evident. However, both my own schedule and external factors can cause a delay of hours, and sometimes days, before I'm able to do a brief analysis and put together an update email (for example, in addition to a lag time for today's quakes, I also missed sending an update prior to a recent 5.9 Oregon quake, despite clear evidence of an emerging NERVS pattern). 

Because some patterns are now established to such a degree that comparative analysis is less necessary, though, it makes sense to try more rapid updates through Twitter. 

To subscribe, please follow: NERVSupdate

The updates provided by the NERVSupdate Twitter feed may be somewhat less accurate in specificity, but may enhance timeliness. 

Chart of quakes West of Macquarie Island preceding West Coast quakes:

-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.



Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate