The last NERVS update (August 23) was accurate, with a 4.8 quake occurring in Central California on August 27. Quakes in the secondary and tertiary vectors were also accurate.
More recent quakes in Taiwan, Hokkaido, Honshu, near the west coast of Colombia, New Zealand, Chile, Greece, Hindu Kush (Afghanistan) and a 6.1 quake near the Aleutian Islands yield the following update:
4.0 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Gulf of California, Central California (including offshore), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California, Baja California, Oregon
- Secondary vector: Washington, Nevada, Utah, Iceland, Myanmar, Italy, Turkey, central China, western Canada
- Also possible: Iran, eastern Russia, Bhutan
(As an additional note, two west coast quakes occurred subsequent to the last update: a 6.7 quake in the Vancouver Island region on September 9th and a 4.6 in the Gulf of California on September 10. Though the indications of a new NERVS pattern developing were present, I did not send out an update before those quakes occurred.)
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
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Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.
