Hi All,
The last NERVS update, which was made on May 6, 2011, was not accurate for the primary vector. In that update, the magnitude of other potential pattern quakes was low, which also lowered the minimum magnitude threshold of a qualifying quake to 4.0. For the following ten days, no California quake of sufficient magnitude occurred, though a 3.9 did occur in Nevada within the specified time range, and other quakes in the secondary and tertiary vectors also occurred. Of note is an increase of quake activity in Alaska, which was suggested as part of the last update.
The last NERVS update, which was made on May 6, 2011, was not accurate for the primary vector. In that update, the magnitude of other potential pattern quakes was low, which also lowered the minimum magnitude threshold of a qualifying quake to 4.0. For the following ten days, no California quake of sufficient magnitude occurred, though a 3.9 did occur in Nevada within the specified time range, and other quakes in the secondary and tertiary vectors also occurred. Of note is an increase of quake activity in Alaska, which was suggested as part of the last update.
Also missed, based on my schedule but within recognizable NERVS patterns, were two more recent California quakes: a 4.5 in Baja on June 9, and a 4.8 off the Northern California coast on June 18.
However, since that period of frequent but relatively low magnitude quakes, three significant quakes have occurred: a 7.4 in the Fox/Aleutian islands on June 23, a 7.7 quake in the Kermadec Islands on July 6, and a 7.0 in Honshu earlier today (July 9). Large quakes in these areas (or near, in the case of the Kermadecs) have occurred prior to California quakes. Thus, these three significant quakes, along with recent quakes in Taiwan, the Western Mediterranean Sea, Oaxaca and Myanmar yield the following NERVS update:
4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California (including offshore), Southern California, Central California (including offshore), Baja California, Oregon, Vancouver Island, Washington, Nevada
- Secondary vector: Utah, Western Canada, Central China, Iceland, Greenland
- Also possible: Hindu Kush region (Afghanistan), Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Illinois, eastern Russia
- Also possible: Hindu Kush region (Afghanistan), Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Illinois, eastern Russia
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
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Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.
