Tuesday, May 18, 2010

NERVS update ***updated***

Hi All,

As I was sending the last NERVS update, I received a USGS email reporting a 5.1 Southern California quake occurring minutes after the Sunda Strait quake. While this may resolve the most recent NERVS risk vector, based on prior activity I'll suggest that the latest NERVS update remain active for the standard 10-day time period:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California), Northern California, Central California
- Secondary vector: Taiwan, Chile, Kamchatka Peninsula, Tonga, Peru, Japan
- Also possible: Pakistan, Russia, China


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

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NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes in the Sunda Strait are typically not good news. Since I started tracking events for NERVS, Sunda Strait quakes have not failed to produce quakes in California (including Baja) within 15 days, and usually within 10 days. While not always large in California, quakes in the Sunda Strait also tend to precede 6.8 or greater quakes somewhere around the globe. In fact, the 6.9 quake in Baja, California on April 4, 2010 was preceded by a 4.8 Sunda Strait quake on March 24.

Thus, a recent uptick of quakes in Iran, Japan and the Greenland Sea,  along with a 5.2 quake in the Sunda Strait earlier today, yields the following NERVS update:
4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Southern California (including Baja and the Gulf of California), Northern California, Central California
- Secondary vector: Taiwan, Chile, Kamchatka Peninsula, Tonga, Peru, Japan
- Also possible: Pakistan, Russia, China


-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 


-----

The last NERVS update on May 1, 2010 was accurate, with a 4.6 quake occurring in Baja on May 4, and a 5.0 occurring in Southern California on May 8.

-----

Obtaining Drinking Water from your Water Heater 
Damaged or broken supply pipes, compromised treatment facilities or loss of pressure could make obtaining clean water a top priority after a major quake. Don't forget about your water heater—it's a great resource for gallons of usable water. Keeping the water inside is one reason to brace it. 

A spigot or other outflow device should be present on the bottom of your gas or electric water heater.  Examine the top as well—you may have faucet handles or other shut-off valves to limit inflow of contaminated water. Remember that multiple strong aftershocks can continue after the initial quake, so make sure the gas is off before spending much time in front of your water heater, and avoid any ignition source until you're sure residual gas has had time to clear. More: http://www.earthquakecountry.info/daretoprepare/stuff/waterheater.html

-----

Your fault? 
If buying a home in the Bay Area, you may also be buying increased risk. Your disclosure packet should contain an assessment of earthquake risk based on your home's proximity to known faults. The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) uses the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale to rate estimated quake damage. See a description here: http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/doc/mmi.html

-----

What California emergency services are available before and after a large event? See the California Emergency Management Agency's plan. http://www.oes.ca.gov/WebPage/oeswebsite.nsf/Content/A1F2F25F0947AF848825741F006015EF?OpenDocument

-----

An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes

And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html

-----

If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.

Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

For preparedness and response information, see:

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos in this simulation:
Archived Test Videos

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate



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Saturday, May 1, 2010

NERVS update

Hi All, 

Quakes in Myanmar, Vanuatu and the Kamchatka Peninsula, along with a 6.3 in the Bering Sea, yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California (including Bay Area and offshore), Central California, Southern California (including offshore)
- Secondary vector: Bulgaria, Taiwan, Chile, Kamchatka Peninsula
- Also possible: Aegean Sea, Turkey, Iran, Bolivia


-----

For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas. 




-----

Obtaining Drinking Water from your Water Heater 
Damaged or broken supply pipes, compromised treatment facilities or loss of pressure could make obtaining clean water a top priority after a major quake. Don't forget about your water heater—it's a great resource for gallons of usable water. Keeping the water inside is one reason to brace it. 

A spigot or other outflow device should be present on the bottom of your gas or electric water heater.  Examine the top as well—you may have faucet handles or other shut-off valves to limit inflow of contaminated water. Remember that multiple strong aftershocks can continue after the initial quake, so make sure the gas is off before spending much time in front of your water heater, and avoid any ignition source until you're sure residual gas has had time to clear. More: http://www.earthquakecountry.info/daretoprepare/stuff/waterheater.html

-----

Your fault? 
If buying a home in the Bay Area, you may also be buying increased risk. Your disclosure packet should contain an assessment of earthquake risk based on your home's proximity to known faults. The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) uses the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale to rate estimated quake damage. See a description here: http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/doc/mmi.html

-----

What California emergency services are available before and after a large event? See the California Emergency Management Agency's plan. http://www.oes.ca.gov/WebPage/oeswebsite.nsf/Content/A1F2F25F0947AF848825741F006015EF?OpenDocument

-----

An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes

And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html

-----

If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. 
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.

Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:

For preparedness and response information, see:

Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.

What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:

What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos in this simulation:
Archived Test Videos

When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates: 

Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:


Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.

Nate

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