The most recent NERVS update was partially accurate, as several quakes occurred within the appropriate risk vectors, including two in the primary vector (Baja, California and Oregon), but not at the magnitude of 5.0 or greater.
However, additional quakes have occurred in key areas, including Chile, Taiwan, China and Myanmar, and the pattern setting up still suggests a larger potential quake somewhere in California. These events combine to yield the following NERVS update:
5.0 or greater magnitude quake in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Central California including an epicenter location near the Bay Area (e.g. Alum Rock), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California (including an epicenter in the LA basin), Oregon, Washington
- Secondary vector: Central Alaska, Vancouver Island, Iran, Kentucky, Congo, Nevada
- Also possible: Turkey, Greece, Romania, Albania, Utah, Wyoming
NERVS Accuracy Check
Last round included several quakes that occurred within the risk vectors and time envelope, though not at the correct magnitude for a West Coast quake. Details to come at a later time.
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
An SF earthquakes service is available on Twitter. Thanks to NERVS member Dan for the resource. http://twitter.com/sfearthquakes
And if Google is more your style, here's a new way to search for quakes. Thanks to NERVS member Mark for the resource. http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/shaking-up-earthquake-searches.html
If you live in the Bay Area, don't miss the USGS simulation of a 6.8, 7.0 or 7.2 quake on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults.
When you get to the page, click on the images to yield the animated versions. Also available in HD.
Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:
For preparedness and response information, see:
Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.
What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:
What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:
Archived Test Videos
When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates:
Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
