The last NERVS update, which was made on July 9, 2011, was not accurate for the primary vector. For the ten days following, no California quake of sufficient magnitude occurred. However a 5.9 quake occurred in the Gulf of California on July 26, eight days after the update expired. And quakes in secondary and tertiary vectors, including a quake in the Lake Baykal region (Russia), were accurate.
I'm traveling today, so I started—but didn't have a chance to finish—the latest NERVS update before I boarded a plane, during which time the second of two unusual events occurred, and which could have an impact on California.
The first, which occurred yesterday (or this morning, UTC) was a 5.5 quake near Cokedale, Colorado. It was preceded by a 4.6, also in Colorado, and represents the most powerful Colorado quake in 40 years.
The second is the 5.8 quake which occurred near Mineral, Virginia, and which was widely felt across the Eastern U.S. It represents that state's most powerful quake in a century.
Both of these events occur in combination with a third unusual condition as it relates to the NERVS hypothesis: a decline in West Coast quake activity in response to NERVS patterns. In the last two to three months, relatively few California quakes have occurred, and any of significant magnitude tend to have been localized to the Baja area. I'm not sure yet what to make of this potential decline. However, while not part of the NERVS hypothesis, there is a noteworthy similarity in the first two events that might bear on the third. Notice especially the following latitudes (the first number):
Honshu, Japan: 38.322N 142.369E (site of the 9.0 quake in March)
Cokedale, CO: 37.137N 104.671W
Mineral, VA: 37.881N 77.952W
Cupertino, CA: 37.200N 122.00W
It may be interesting to test whether great quakes can create "stress latitudes" for a period of time afterward. If so, this may suggest that energy normally used to produce California quakes is somehow being diverted eastward along a relatively narrow curvilinear path.
The events that prompt this NERVS update are the recent 7.5 quake in Vanuatu, which is a high-incidence NERVS precursor for California quakes, and a number of smaller pattern-oriented quakes, including a small magnitude quake in Hindu Kush (Afghanistan). If the Colorado and Virginia quakes did not resolve the most recent NERVS pattern, then this NERVS update is for the following:
4.0 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Central California (including offshore), Northern California (including offshore), Southern California, Baja California, Oregon
- Secondary vector: Nevada, Utah, Central China, Iceland, Myanmar, Taiwan, Portugal, Spain, Italy
- Also possible: Chile, Peru, Alaska Peninsula, Madagascar, Tanzania
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
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Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.
