The last NERVS update was accurate, with a 5.5 quake occurring in the Gulf of California within the time and magnitude range. Quakes in several other pattern locations also occurred, including Taiwan and Iran.
The large quake today in Myanmar, originally registering at 7.0 but revised downward to 6.8, is the latest indicator in a possible NERVS pattern, which also includes quakes in the Mid-Altantic Ridge, Hindu-Kush region (Afghanistan), Tajikistan, offshore Chiapas, Mexico and Reykjanes Ridge near Iceland. Prior to the Myanmar quake, a possible pattern was evident, but at magnitudes that don't typically produce a West Coast quake of 4.5 or greater. However, the strength of the Myanmar quake, as well as the magnitude of the recent Japan quake, yields the following NERVS update:
4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Washington, Southern California, Central California, Northern California, Vancouver Island, Baja and the Gulf of California, Nevada
- Secondary vector: Alaska (Aleutian Islands or Central), Russia (Siberia, Lake Baykal Region, Primor'ye, Komandorskiye Ostrova Region), Hokkaido
- Also possible: Bouvet Island, Colombia, Peru, Dominican Republic
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Several people have asked me about two earthquake forecasts getting a lot of media attention: one which suggested a California quake would occur on March 18 or 19, and one which asserts that each part of the Pacific Plate, except for the Northeast corner, has experienced a large quake, presumably building enough stress in the remaining quadrant to yield a large or great quake on the West Coast.
The first forecast has passed, and while I took a cursory glance at the data (if I found the correct website), the author uses techniques for which I have little or no knowledge, so I can't validate them. Along with ground thermal readings to suggest friction and fault stress, the author did suggest animal behavior as a potential indicator, which I believe would be difficult to gauge reliably; is an earthquake on its way, or is Mittens just feeling extra frisky? Thermal, electromagnetic and behavioral indicators are outside the scope of the NERVS experiment, so I tend not to pay attention to them.
The other appears to be from science writer Simon Winchester (Newsweek: The Scariest Earthquake Is Yet to Come). I scanned the article but didn't read it thoroughly yet. While not a scientist per se, Mr. Winchester was trained as a geologist and has contributed some items to the body of geologic knowledge. I've listened to two of his audiobooks, "Krakatoa", which documents the geologic and societal conditions surrounding the greatest volcanic explosion in recent history, and "A Crack in the Edge of the World", which captures a similar history of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. So he doesn't make his assertion without at least some informed basis, and through his research he may have a deeper grasp than many of us on the real societal impact a West Coast quake could have. His core premise, though, seems to rely on specific assumptions about the behavior of tectonic plates. Since at this point the NERVS experiment is bounded to recognizing possible patterns without speculating as to their underlying cause, I similarly can't validate. However, I will say that though he attributes cause and effect to plates and not patterns, Mr. Winchester is aware of the chronological proximity quake activity sometimes appears to produce, an observation that was shared by John Milne (an early inventor of the modern seismograph), and which is a partial basis of the NERVS experiment.
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
