The last NERVS update was accurate for California, with a 4.5 quake occurring in the Gulf of California on December 23, which was within the specified timeframe. Non-primary vectors were also accurate.
Recent quakes in Iran, Chile, Oaxaca, Honshu, the Santa Cruz Islands, Tonga and Myanmar are at relatively low magnitudes, but combining that activity with the 7.3 quake in Northern Sumatra yesterday yields the following NERVS update:
4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Oregon, Northern California (including offshore), Central California (including offshore), Southern California (including Baja and offshore)
- Secondary vector: Nevada, Washington, Utah, Vancouver Island, western Canada
- Also possible: Taiwan, Northern Peru, New Zealand, Iceland (Svalbard Region), Kamchatka Peninsula
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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
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Nate
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Nate Myers
nmyers@apple.com 408-974-9207 Apple Inc.
