NERVS update

Hi All, 

Events in the Strait of Gibraltar, Burma, and Alaska, along with a 5.8 quake earlier today Southwest of Africa yield the following NERVS update:

4.5 or greater magnitude in next 10 days:
- Primary vector: Northern California, Offshore Northern California, Offshore Southern California, Southern California, Greater Los Angeles Area, Central California, Baja California (including offshore), Nevada, Utah, Wyoming

- Secondary vector: Oregon (including offshore), Montana, Arizona, Nevada

- Also possible: M7 or greater worldwide (see table below)

While outside the NERVS protocol, long-time subscribers know that certain phenomena are sometimes highlighted as circumstances warrant. This includes the possible existence of locations that tend to serve as precursors to large quakes (e.g. Sunda Strait) when events there are of sufficient magnitude (4.5+). The Flinn-Engdahl Region designated "Southwest of Africa" is not only a precursor for California quakes, but also may be a large event precursor. Notice the approximate chronological relationship between all events 4.5m or greater Southwest of Africa since 2007, and magnitude 7+ events within the subsequent 20 days (with the one m6.6 Kamchatka exception that was eclipsed 5 days later by a 7.8 in Scotia Sea):

While there does not appear to be a clear relationship between the precursor event magnitude and its subsequent large event, it is noteworthy that today's event represents the largest magnitude event in the series.

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For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.


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Nate

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natemyers@me.com

408-515-2235