Two parts to this NERVS update:
1. Quakes have been forming a consistent NERVS pattern in the past several days, including activity in the Sunda Strait, which frequently precedes a large quake or series of quakes around the globe. In addition, quakes in Iran, Taiwan and Chile yield the following NERVS update:
4.5 or greater magnitude quake in next 5 days:
- Primary vector: Central California, Northern California, Southern California
- Secondary vector: Nevada, Washington, Utah, Vancouver Island
- Also possible: Virginia, Cayman Islands, Africa, Alaska
2. Some have wondered whether the last NERVS update included the recent 4.0 quake in the North Bay. The last update ended on September 1, and the quake occurred on September 6. Some of the other possible vectors in the last update did happen within the date range, which indicated a possible run-up to a Bay Area quake. Unfortunately, I saw a possible pattern developing late Friday afternoon but wasn't in a position to send an update.
For those new to the list, NERVS stands for:
Numerical (or "non-scientific")
Earthquake
Risk
Vector
System
...and is based on prior California quakes being preceded by similar patterns of quakes in other areas.
Get an earthquake education from UC Berkeley for free! Available from iTunes U, "Earthquakes In Your Backyard" covers many interesting physical and social aspects of geologic science. Check out iTunes for more:
When is an uplifting experience a bad thing? When it's caused by bulging magma in the United States' largest volcano. If your travel plans are taking you to Yellowstone in the near future, first check the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory alerts and updates:
Just how large is the Yellowstone caldera? View the Google map provided by NERVS list member Caleb Tonn:
For preparedness and response information, see:
Earthquakes in the Bay Area may cause dam or soil failure. Are you at risk in a flood or liquefaction zone? Check and see:
Note: When you see the map, choose the Zoom In tool. Then just click and drag to magnify your area of interest.
What could happen in a typical office during a quake? See the simulation:
What would happen to homes if a 6.7 temblor occurred in the Bay Area? The Structural Engineering and Earthquake Simulation Laboratory (SEESL) provides these room-by-room videos of a 6.7 simulation:
Archived Test Videos
Thank you for participating in this experiment. Please reply by email to let me know if you'd like to add persons or be removed from this list.
Nate
